TOP SECRET
F.
AMERICAN INVOLVEMENT
51. The Americans make grest use of Hong Kong. It is convenient as a recreational centre for their surface and air forces engaged in the Viet-Nam war (and was so used by their naval forces long before their involvement in Viet--Nam) although it is not indispensable for this purpose since the Philippines, Formosa, Thailand and Australia can and do serve the same purpose. The Americans also use Hong Kong as their major centre for "China watching". In this role Hong Kong i. unique. This latter use makes it certain that the Americans would wish us to stay in Hong Kong at least as long as there is a Communist government not recognised by them in Peking, irrespective of the outcome in Viet-Nam and any consequences this may have for American military deployment in the area. 52. One of the factors which prevents Chinese military involvement in any neighbouring country (i.e. India or Viet-Nam) is the fear of American nuclear retaliation again: . China. The Chinese leadership appear to be genuinely con- vinced that in the long run the Americans will become involved in a war with China and, despite their propaganda about nuclear weapons being "paper tigers", there is little doubt that they take seriously the threat of a massive nuclear attack. Although this fear does not grevent China from pursuing policies of hostility towards the United States it does seem to prevent them from pushing these policies to the point of direct confrontation. It is therefore arguable that the Chinese could be deterred from taking action against Hong Kong by the threat of American retaliation against China. It is, however, probably true that they would only be deterred in this way from military action against Hong Kong which could be clearly defined as "Chinese aggression". It is much less likely that a deterrent of this sort could put an end to the incitement to subversion in Hong Kong, sincs the Chinese would calculate, quite correctly, that there is no point at which such subversion can be considered as the justification for nuclear retaliation against China. 53. Though the Americans wish us to stay in Hong Kong for domestic as well as international reasons they would be most reluctant to give a public nuclear guarantee for Hong Kong
nor
TOP SECRET
/nor
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