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20 November, 1968
A great deal has happened to the liong Kong Long Term Study since it last saw the light of day as OPDO (D) (68) 5 of 1 April, 1968 and was considered by the Defence Review Working Party on 26 April (OPT(DR)(68) 8th Mesting). The Commonwealth Secretary discussed it with the Governor in May and instructed that it should take full account of the latter's views; this has been done, resulting in a series of redrafts (one of which was taken to Hong Kong by Heath Mason in July and fully discussed there with the Governor) The Far Eastern Department showed it to Sir Donald Hopson when he came out of China in August and it takes account of his views also; they have moreover up-dated Section E on Chinese Attitudes and Intentions. Substantiai parts of the paper have accordingly been re-written, although Sections A-D show little change.
2.
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My object in writing is to clear with you an amended version of the Military paragraphs of Section B: British Interests (paragrapha 17-19 in OPDO (DR)(68)5). You may recall that, as a result of the discussions in DEWP on 26 April, you sent me some amendments (your letter 18/11/6/7/4 of 3 May refers). These have to some extent been overtaken by events, 1.e. Ministers have now taken a decision to increase the forces in Hong Kong after withdrawal from Singapore. It is therefore necessary o refer to this decision in the paper and in the circumstances there no longer seems a need to include a new conclusion or recommendation on the lines you suggested.
3. I enclose (Annex A) the proposed amended version of paragraphs 17-19 and of Conclusion (a). You will note that paragraph 19 now attempts to look forward to the net cost of the forces in Hong Kong after 1971; although it is not in DRWP minutes I recall a specific Treasury request that Minis ters should be given an indication of the rising cost to us of maintaining our position in the Colony post 1971.
4. I also enclose (Annex B) two new paragraphs dealing with the question of the Dormant Commission in favour of the CBF, together with the relevant Conclusions and Recommendation. We decided that to includo here the question of revoking this obsolete instrument would be an appropriate (and the easiest) way of getting the necessary ministerial decision on it.
A. Campbell, Esq., CMG., Ministry of Defence.
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