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military take-over) in which this union with China might
come about; the major problems that would arise; the
possibilities open to us to withdraw; and the prospects of
our reaching a negotiated solution.
The Circumstances
55. We might reach an entirely voluntary decision that the
best course would be to withdraw. This could be the case in
the following situations:-
(a) The emergence in China of a more moderate regime
to whom we could
conscientiously hand over the
destinies of Hong Kong's people; this is highly
unlikely in the near future.
(b) With or without a changed situation in China as in
(a), a swing of substantial proportions in Hong Kong
Chinese opinion in favour of rejoining China.
This
might come about in deteriorating economic
conditions in Hong Kong; or as a result of a
successful Communist campaign to "cultivate the
masses"; or a combination of both. The emergence in
Hong Kong of a generation that has its roots only
in the Colony possibly militates against this; on
the other hand, China's growing strength coupled
with our disengagement East of Suez and the general
effects of the approach of 1997 (see Annex B) may
lead in time to a resigned acceptance of the
inevitable by most of the Colony's population who
will adjust their attitude accordingly.
(c) A severe economic setback for Hong Kong or period
of economic stagnation, with a clear indication
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/that
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