TNAG-0115-FCO40-151-Departmental-briefs-for-Commonwealth-Prime-Minister-s-and-ot-1969 — Page 109

everyone so much concern, and in the South, where Rhodesia, the

Portuguese colonies, South-West Africa and the apartheid policy

of the Government of South Africa, all raise most complex

problems.

26. The war in Nigeria has highlighted the greatest danger

facing Africa today progressive Balkanisation

that is, the

gradual breaking up of the forty or so independent countries now

established into small tribal groups. This would leave Africa

wide open to be exploited by outsiders who have only their own

interests at heart, and extinguish all hopes for that economic

development which must depend on regional cooperation.

27. The Rhodesian situation has still not been satisfactorily

resolved and this causes grave problems for Botswana, Swaziland

and Lesotho. In addition these three new countries are

economically enmeshed with a country whose racial policies they

abhor and the stability of the whole area is threatened by the

continuation of apartheid, whose extension to South-West Africa

does not bode well for the future.

28.

Increasing cooperation between Rhodesian, Portuguese and

South African security forces is likely to draw the lines for

a future armed conflict even more strongly, and it is difficult

to see how the other countries in this part of Africa would be

able to stand aside in such an event.

29.

Rhodesia remains one of the most intransigent problems

facing the British Government. We have long had responsibility

for that unfortunate country without power to control events

inside it. This is the reason why we have been unable to bring

Rhodesia along the road to majority rule and to a respect for

democratic and human rights, as we have with all the other

territories which were formerly British dependencies.

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