G.F. 73A 0000731
MEMO
Director, Royal Observatory.
From..
Ref. (4)
R.C. 6/67.
„In..
Tel. No.
634201
Da
8th July, 1967..
Director of Water Supplies.
To......................................
Your Ref................. in..
dated
Long Range Rainfall Forecasts
4
Copy
tEWN
2. usual.
3.
To confirm telecon Bell/Robertson of 7th July, 1967.
Summer conditions appear to be running about two weeks later than
Total summer rainfall ( June to Septembor) can be predicted with less uncertainty than in the case of monthly rainfall and cur mothoc still indicate that the summer rainfall should be close to normal. However, because of the 'latenost' of the summer it is now probable that the rainfall will be on the low side of normal rather than on the upper side as originally predicted.
4.
+
Within thọ mummer, but at a lower level of confidence, indications are that the rainfall in July and August will be below normal whoreas that in September will be above normal.
5.
6.
October is also expected to be wetter than usual.
This forecast up-dates that given in my memo R.0. 5/67 of 3rd Harch 1957. There was not time to check the complete computations before tho Karch forecast was issued and subsequent checking shown that the confidenco limita were wrongly stated and they should therefore be ignored.
7.
May June
July
For information, normal, observed and forecast figures are:-
August Sent.
Summer June to Sept.
Max.
Kin.
Normal 11.52
43.84
.0.24
15.90
14.60 14.63
34.31 37.91 30.07
2.33
4.ce
10.98
55.01
33.24
84.78 4
1.74
0.63
25.81
1967
1.13
14.06
Forecast Bolow
About
Normal
Normal
Below Below Above Normal Normal Normal
Close to Normal
on the Low side
(9m)
( 17′′)
Normals are from the period (1884-1939; 1947 Extremes are from the period(1834 -1939: 1947
11. Bell
1960 1966
Director/Royal Observatory.
0.0. Hon. C.s.
Hon. D.P .W. ·
Joint Engineers.
QJB/01.
RECEIVED IN
ARCHIVES No. 62
25.
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