FSL 1070
"We have declared already many times and we continue to declare that we are still ready to accept a political solution" with Israel. He never even mentioned Israel's attacks on Jordan of March 21 and 29. King Hussein must have felt as unsatisfied listening to the speech as the Egyptian students. The only person who has any reason for satisfaction is Ali Sabri, ASU President.
Grechko
• Marshal Grechko, Soviet Defence Minister, arrived unexpectedly in Cairo from Damascus on March 30. When he left Moscow on March 20 he was scheduled to visit only Iraq and Syria. Meanwhile a new Israel- Jordan clash occurred on March 29, following those of February 16 and March 21. The question his visit rai- ses is whether the Soviet Union will let Egypt come to Jordan's aid in further clashes with Israel. Since the Soviet Union has replaced 80% of the arms Egypt lost last June and has thousands of instructors in key posi- tions in her armed forces, Egypt cannot move without Soviet permission.
There have been reports from Cairo this week that in the light of Israel's continued intransigence, the Soviet Union has decided that it has no choice but to back Egypt in an attempt to regain Sinai. There have also been reports that on March 21 President Nasser offered King Hussein air cover, but that the King declined the offer in order to avoid escalation; for the same reason he has not used Jordan's Hunter jets in any recent incident. Yet on March 26 Egyptian military transport planes landed supplies at Amman airport.
Whitehall still believes, however, that the Soviet Union does not want Egypt to become involved, either on her own or on Jordan's side, in a new confrontation with Israel which might bring the Soviet Union into a clash with the U.S. which would back Israel. The Sov- iet Union is certainly holding Egypt back. She did so on March 21 when Egypt engaged in a 20 minute artil- lery duel across the Canal an incident that was not reported in the Egyptian press. And Nasser completely ignored Israeli attacks on Jordan in his March 30 speech.
Moreover, in the Security Council debates after the Incidents of March 21 and March 29, Mr. Malik was moderately constructive. He argued in favour of sanc- tions against Israel, but settled for observers along the Jordan River. On this analysis, Marshal Grechko's tour has been designed to hold the Arabs back, not to spur them on.
But Soviet pressure on Syria and Iraq is unlikely to be as effective as on Egypt. The role of the 12,000 Iraqi troops in Jordan is particularly interesting. The Jordan government, which would very much like to see them return home, has succeeded so far in keeping the bulk of them well away from the front line. But there was considerable movement by these troops on March 21; it may not have been due entirely to replacements. Moreover there are small Iraqi anti-aircraft units in the hills overlooking the Jordan and they went into act- ion on March 29. If Iraqi troops in Jordan join in act- ion against Israel, this will introduce a new element into the Middle East situation over which the Soviets will not have full control.
Rumania
New details have reached London on the way the Ceau- aescu regime is restricting contacts between Rumani- ans and foreigners, particularly Russians and east Eur- opeans (FSL 1966). The restrictions are listed in a decree dated May, 1966, which has never been published, and for a long time was not fully implemented. But for several weeks now the security authorities have been calling meetings in ministries, foreign trade organisa-
tions, universities, technical schools and factories to publicise the decree.
Il requires every Rumanian to: report any contact with a foreigner, whether he is from another commun- ist country or not; report any conversation with a for- eigner overheard in a public place; bring any letter re- ceived from abroad to his place of work; ask permission before offering or accepting any hospitality or invitation from a foreigner; submit a report after a visit abroad; and declare any present from a foreigner.
As a result of the strict enforcement of these re- strictions, Rumanians who were normally accessible to foreign embassies or to visiting journalists or business- men, now ask that arrangements be made for meetings through the Foreign Ministry. But the restrictions are being applied more to contacts with Russians and east Europeans than to those with westerners. Rumanian officials state apologetically to westerners that the restrictions are not aimed mainly at them. And atta- chés of Soviet and east European embassies grumble to their western colleagues that their contacts with Rum- anians have declined drastically.
Three reasons are believed to lie behind the restric- tions: Firstly a desire to make it more difficult for either Russians or eastern Europeans to seek allies inside Rumania to overthrow Mr. Ceausescu the 'en- fant terrible' of the Warsaw Pact; secondly the secret police, still smarting under Ceausescu's attack on them last July for inefficiency, are showing how they have reformed; thirdly the Rumanian leader views with alarm the liberal ferment in Czechoslovakia and is de- termined that it will not infect Rumania.
In a speech on March 22 Ceausescuclaimed that the Party Congress in July 1965 had "resolutely embarked on the path of doing away with conservative tendencies to stiffness and rigidity in economic, social and polit- ical life". He called for a "debate on the crucial is- sues of the development of our society with the broad mass of the people". But the party is to be "the true motive force, leading and guiding the whole activity, mobilising the masses to implement party policy". The masses are thus not to participate in discussions but to be merely passive instruments implementing it. The National Assembly holds two sessions of two days each year and never modifies pre-determined party policy.
Cables
AMMAN: At one of his restricted meetings with gov- érnment, political, business and academic leaders on March 5, King Hussein said he would like to cooperate with "sound elements" among the guerillas but he hoped to control the more irresponsible elements who might force the Arab states into a war with Israel for which they are not prepared. The King has been encouraging moves to form a National Front government under Sul- eiman al Nabulsi (Premier in 1956) who is distinctly pro-Nasser. It would include prominent Palestinians from the West Bank, leftists, Baathists (Arab Social- ists) and Moslem Brothers, but not apparently guerillas.
• PARIS: French Embassies in Africa are reported to have been informed by the Elysee that France would intervene militarily to prevent a change of government in seven out of fifteen former French African colonies: Senegal, the Ivory Coast, Niger, Cameroon, Gabon, Congo Brazzaville and Madagascar. Senegal and Mad- agascar have French naval bases, Niger and Gabon uranium. In the Congo Brazzaville, France's interest is in preventing a shift of government to the extreme left, not to the right. Excluded from the list as of "no permanent interest" to France are Mauritania, Mali, Guinea, Chad, Upper Volta, the CAR, Togo, and Dahomey.
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