TNAG-0060-FCO40-96-Strength-of-Hong-Kong-garrison-1968 — Page 59

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ANNEX (Continued

COSTS

40. The costs of our proposals, above those of the present permanent garrison, will be about £3.3 million in annual budgetary terns, of which £0.5 million is in addition to the provision made in the calcu- lations for long term costings for 1972/73 force levels (the "Four Day Costing Exercise"). The annual budgetary costs do not represent the savings that would be made if forces were withdraw, since some of the units concerned (eg, the frigate) are part of the general capability and are not provided exclusively for the Hong Kong task. The extra foreign exchange cost would be about £1.4 million. The detailed breakdown of costs and manpower is shown at Appendix. figures do not include the cost of any additional accommodation that may be required. Nor do they include the costs of the three additional MCMVS or the five Hunter aircraft, which we suggest should be met from outside the Defence budget. The annual programme cost of these units

would amount to about £1M.

41. We conclude that:

a.

CONCLUSIONS

A – TANGAN ANDREAS A

These

Despite the lull in confrontation resulting from a change in tactics by the Chinose Communists, we can discern no weakening of their long term intentions to maintain their pressure on the Colony. The threat to internal security, coupled with the ability of the Chinese to aggravate the situation on the border, will in no sense diminish.

b.

The withdrawal of British forces from Malaysia and Singapore will be apparent to the population of Hong Kong. Morale in the Colony will be particularly sensitive to the knowledge that there will be no reserve forces available in the theatre and that reinforcements will have to come from the United Kingdom.

C.

A reduction of one battalion below the present level of 73 major units may be acceptable whilst the Commander-in-Chief Far East retains the ability to reinforce at very short notice from within the theatre. However, it will be necessary to bring the garrison back to its recommended strength of 72 major units before the withdrawal from Singapore is completed.

a. In the event of a serious emergency, it would be necessary to reinforce the Hong Kong Garrison of 7 major units by up to three major units to meet the Commander-in-Chief's now operational concept. The reinforcing units would have to be provided from the United Kingdom.

In order to meet the requirement for rapid reinforcement from the United Kingdom there will have to be pre-stocking of unit equipment at appropriato scales for the reinforcing

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A - 13