TNAG-0058-FCO40-94-Armed-Forces-exercise-Caricature-1967 — Page 60

SECRET

5. It is of course difficult to assess the probable Chinese reaction now. Given their present preoccupations, they may show no concern. It is perhaps significant that the visit of the nuclear powered U S.S. LONGBEACH has provoked very little reaction indeed in the Left Wing press. The settlement of the Macao dispute has improved the general atmosphere in Hong Kong.

6. On 26th January we issued a press release on Services' training programme generally which included the following:

"An exercise planned for February is designed to train the garrison in conjunction with other units of Far East Command

the units taking part....Will

include amphibious forces which will practise beach and and helicopter landings.

This attracted no attention and was printed in only one Chinese (and not Left Wing) newspaper.

7. On the other hand, the situation in China is tense and incalculable: Chinese leaders may be looking for diversions to distract the minds of the people from the present disorder. In this situation the Chinese leadership may either become genuinely alarmed by unusual military activity here, or they may wish to exploit such activities for their own propaganda purposes. They may be unable to exercise the same degree of restraint and commonsense that they have before.

8. Hong Kong reaction is also difficult to predict. In some sections of the population, the exercise could well help by increasing confidence in H.M.G.'s abilities to reinforce Hong Kongo On the other hand very careful control of publicity will be necessary to avoid alarm, which may arise, at the timing of the exercise. The Left Wing press is bound to react unfavourably, and excessive publicity would tend to force Left Wing papers to take more violent objection. It is unfortunate in this connection that the present situation in China has attracted an unusually large number of foreign correspondents here as well as a B.B.C. team, who are likely to play this up unless dissuaded.

9. To sum up, there are undoubtedly considerable risks in holding this exercise now and I would have been far happier if it had not been planned. But provided:

(1) it is absolutely accepted that I can request

cancellation at any time, even, if necessary, after the exercise starts (although this would clearly have its own dangers);

(2)

publicity here and abroad is strictly confined to what is necessary to allay any local apprehensions that may arise, and specifically does not contain any matter whose purpose is merely to call attention to the troops engaged on the characteristics of the weapons etc. employed;

and

(3) the narrative of the exercise is not disclosed;

SECRET

/then

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