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of the Colony owing to the intensification of civil disturbances or where
Chinese troops had crossed the frontior in force. It was considered,
however, that in practice, the difference between the two situations would
have no great significance. If control of the situation in the Colony were
lost, then Chinose military intervention would be likely; if, on the other
hand, the Chinese planned to launch a military attack, they would arrange
In either for it to be accompanied by widespread disturbances in Hong Kong.
caso, police and British forces would be fully oxtended and able to do
little to cover an evacuation.
(c) It is clear from the foregoing that the possibility of being able to
ovacuato our troops would be remoto, except in the unlikely circumstances
of a negotiated, largo-scalo withdrawal from the Colony. A fighting
withdrawal on the lines of Dunkirk, when all else had boon over-run, could
not be entirely excluded if shipping could be made available, but it seems
most improbable. Should it not prove possible to extricate our troops,
they would of course add significantly to the number of hostages who could
be used by the Chinese for bargaining purposes.
The
(a) As indicated above, knowledge that evacuation planning was in progress
would deal a severe blow to public confidence in the Colony.
strictest precautions to avoid any loak are therefore necessary.
(o) The paper does not take into account the possible effects on opinion
in the Colony, and hence on our possible plans for evacuation, of action
by other nations, in particular the United States, if the situation in the
Colony worsened. Such action for example, the evacuation of dependants
might inspire lack of confidence in our own intentions; in such a caso wo
might have to undertake more overt planning ourselves in concert with other
Governments concerned. This however would accontuate any crisis of
confidence and would be liable to result in our losing control of the
situation. It is not possible to speculate usofully on the likelihood
of the United States taking promature action to evacuate dependants, or
planning to do so - soc also paragraph 8 below.
During the disturbances
in Macao they hold on till the last moment, but in Nigeria and Libya they
secmod unduly alarmist.
If the Americans did evacuato their oựm
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