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LIKELY REACTIONS OF OUR ALLIES
United States
In
12. In the short term, American reactions will be conditioned by the
Vietnam struggle. Their preliminary reaction will mainly concern
the effect of our proposals in the next two or three years: they will
be less concerned with the 70s. They will not welcome our proposals,
because, taking the worst case, they would fear that British military withdrawals might have to be compensated by an increase in their own military presence. They are also likely to fear that our actions may prejudice the spread of regional co-operation in South East Asia. discussion with the Foreign Secretary recently, Mr. Bundy stressed the importance in United States eyes of a British military presence, preferably on the mainland, which would give the countries of the area self- confidence in the initial stages when they were developing their own strength and preparing for regional co-operation. The United States did
not regard their present alliance structure as immutable but considered that it must remain for the time being, until the region could stand on its wn feet.
13. But, Mr. Bundy also said that if the region subsequently developed with a less positive western alignment than at present, the United States would not complain. Moreover the Americans themselves, in points 7 and 8 of their 14 points en peace in Vietnam, have publicly
declared
7. "We want no United States bases in South East Asia".
8.
"We do not desire to retain troops in Vietnam after peace is
assured".
It would be difficult for the Americans to deny us a similar right in South East Asia, particularly ence fighting in Vietnam has ended. Moreover, in the long-term post-Vietnam War phase there seems a reasonable chance that United States thinking will develop on lines akin to our own i.e. a peripheral strategy with white troops deployed "over the horizon". Hitherto there has been little United States speculation about the post-Vietnam strategy, but there are now signs of development. The Americans are clearly more confident about the situation in Vietnam; and we should not forget that there is an American election next year with all the pressures that this will bring for a settlement in the area.
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