(97793)
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Review force levels) by 1971-72 in British service manpower of just under a half and a saving in locally enlisted personnel and local civilians of about two-thirds. These reductions carry with them a number of important implications which, apart from the effects on local economies, include the following
G
(a) We should not be able to maintain our force declarations under
SEATO Plan 4 (defence of the SEATO area against attack by China and North Vietnam).
(b) Apart from the small forces provided to secure the point of
entry and our defence facilities, and those for our other national commitments, our contribution to the defence of Malaysia and Singapore would be limited to our forces in the Commonwealth Strategic Force which would also be declared
for SEATO and to reinforcements from the United Kingdom.
The scale of land force reinforcements provided for in the assumptions would bear little relation to what would be needed
to defend Malaysia and Singapore against a determined attack;
and they would inevitably lack jungle experience.
(c) We should not be able to commit ourselves to major operations of
more than 60 days' duration without at least a month's warning;
three months would be needed to provide armour or medium
artillery.
(a) It would not be possible to carry out operations under SEATO
Plan 4 and at the same time assist in the defence of Malaysia.
If we were involved in either, we could not carry out internal
security operations other than in Hong Kong unless the timing
permitted logistic reinforcement,
(e) Under Case A the present British contribution to the Commonwealth
Brigade would be withdrawn, and unless Australia and New
Zealand were prepared to make alternative arrangements for
artillery, engineer and logistic support, they would not be
able to keep land forces in Malaysia or to maintain their
present force declarations to SEATO.
Lastly, the level of forces in the theatre would be such as to leave little
flexibility if events developed unexpectedly.
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