Mr. Godden
TOP SECRET
104
Hong Kong
Lord Shepherd asked me to let him have my personal views on the future of Hong Kong before I left the office. I told him that a long-term study of Hong Kong was in the process of preparation and that this would attempt to analyse the problem in consultation with other Departments of H.V.G.
I attach at flag F the first complete draft of the study, at flag G the minutes of the meeting which reviewed that draft and at flag H a revised draft taking into account the discussions at the meeting. I would like to stress straight away that the draft at Flag H is still a draft and is still to be considered by the Working Party before being submitted to Ministers. I am sending the papers forward at this stage primarily therefore as background information Br the Minister. After he has seen them I should be grateful if they could be returned to Kr. Carter for disposal, as they are top secret documents with a strictly limited circulation and these particular ones have been marked out to me.
My own feeling about the way matters will develop in Hong Kong is summarised at 'X' on page 2 of the minutes at flag G. This is that we have "no choice at present but to stand firm, while hoping that a less immoderate regime would come to power in China and that it would gradually be realised in Hong Kong itself that the territory's future lay as part of, or in some kind of association with, China. This might not be for as much as another ten years, when people would have to take decisions on investment for the future and similar problems. It was to be hoped that by then some Hong Kong Chinese of standing would be prepared to take about the future with the Chinese authorities and perhaps do much of the detailed negotiation with them".
Unless there is some dramatic development such as an attempted invasion by sah`land China, the passage quoted above is the way I think things are
TOE SEMAN
likely
No comments yet.
Private notes are available after approval.