TOP SECRET
in the Chinese leadership; but there is always the
danger that extremist elements may gain the ascendancy,
who would be prepared to sacrifice the economic benefits
for doctrinal purity.
Chinese Attitude and Intentions
(g) The Chinese Government regards the whole of Hong Kong
(both ceded and leased areas) as Chinese territory to
be recovered (although they are on record as saying that
they will negotiate its return); and even if they allowed
the lease of the New Territories to run its full term,
we could not expect to re-negotiate it in 1997.
(h) At the moment they are prepared to accept the continuing
existence of the Colony because it brings them economic
and political advantages. The campaign of violence has
been abandoned for the present and they apparently
recognise that a Macao-type situation will take time
to achieve. Their immediate aims are to maximise their
commercial interests in the Colony and to concentrate
on broadening the base of their support among the people.
In certain circumstances, however, this policy might
quickly change for one of reducing the Colony to a
position of subservience or even of taking it over.
(i) We have virtually no means of bringing pressure to
bear upon China but we should nevertheless examine the
scope for withdrawing services and facilities in the
event of another confrontation.
(j) It is unlikely that the Chinese would take Hong Kong
by direct military attack; it would be more in keeping
TOP SECRET
/with
No comments yet.
Private notes are available after approval.