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to hand the Colony back we could not do so with any hope
of discharging our responsibilities towards its people or
of getting any of them out; and there could be serious
damage to relations with our allies. The other end of the
time scale is determined by the strong probability that
public confidence in the Colony's future will start to slip
and the economy to rundown in the 1980s; it could become a
serious liability to us and it would lose its value to China.
All this points to an initiative on our part taken not later
than the early 1980s and as soon as there emerges in China
a regime with which we might be able to do business and which
all our allies would be prepared to countenance
however, any time when:
avoiding,
(a) the Hong Kong economy is showing weakness; or (b) we are under any form of Chinese pressure either
from within or without the Colony.
82. There are also factors indicating that we should take
the first opportunity that favourable circumstances offer.
The growth rate in the Hong Kong economy necessary to provide
for a natural rate of population increase of the order of 21-3% and for a steadily improving standard of living may be difficult to maintain, since it is wholly dependent on growing world markets for the Colony's exports. Moreover, as the
economic and military strength of China grows, Chinese pressure
on the Colony is likely to increase.
M
83. We consider finally what initiative we may possess in bringing the Chinese to negotiations or an understanding about
Hong Kong when the time seems right, bearing in mind that at any time China could make our position in the Colony impossible
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/and force
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