Mr. Mason
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Ren
10/500
Miss West.
This can await
110
Mr Carter's retur.
ANG 6.
16,9.69.
Mr. Garghinara
HONG KONG:
LONG TERM STUDY
As suggested in your minute of 28 August Sir Donald Hopson has now read the latest version of the long term study in Hong Kong. He has asked me to say that nowhere is he in fundamental disagreement with the views expressed in the paper.
2. He has the following comments on matters of detail:
Paragraph 4 The Chinese ultimatum before the attack on our
Mission dealt not with the treatment of Communist press representatives in Hong Kong but the closure of Communist newspapers. Sir Donald Hopson thinks it unlikely that the Chinese would be able to use our Mission to bring pressure to bear on us on matters other than Hong Kong.
Paragraph 39 a) ii)
The Communists will not conclude from
the failure of their tactics in 1967 that Mao's theory of revolution was faulty, but merely that the timing was wrong; their conclusion will be that in the long term the theory of revolution is bound to prove "invincible" in Hong Kong and elsewhere.
Paragraph 51 In connexion with the comment that the Americans
would wish us to stay in Hong Kong at least as long as there is a Communist Government in Peking, Sir D. Hopson thinks that the factors of the Vietnam war and the possible recognition by the Americans of a Communist Government in Peking should be taken into account.
Paragraph 55 a) With regard to the use of the word
'concientiously", Sir D. Hopson thinks that our moral obligations have to be considered against the time scale. Clearly we could not now conscientiously hand over the destinies of the Hong Kong people to the present régime in China; but as the end of our lease approaches our moral obligations will be less clear cut.
Paragraph 77 Sir D. Hopson thinks it would be more precise
to say that the strength of our position lies in the unwillingness of the Chinese to forego the foreign exchange which results from the present status of Hong Kong.
Conclusion (f) The words "doctrinal purity" possibly create
a wrong impression. Classical revolutionary doctrine does not require the immediate recovery of Hong Kong; it is a problem to be settled in due time. The point in the
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