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difficult and painful,
This is a very difficult practical,
and indeed moral problem. Further study will be necessary
and this also is being put in hand in Hong Kong.
I.
AMERICAN INVOLVEMENT
51. The Americans make great use of Hong Kong. It is
convenient as a recreational centre for their surface and
air forces engaged in the Viet-Nam war (and was so used by
their naval forces long before their involvement in Vietnam)
although it is not indispensable for this purpose since the
Philippines, Formosa, Thailand and Australia can and do serve
the same purpose. The Americans also use Hong Kong as their
major centre for "China watching". In this role Hong Kong is
unique. These two considerations, together with the United
States' policy of containing China, make it certain that the
Americans would wish us to stay in Hong Kong at least as long,
as there is a Communist government in Peking.
52. One of the factors which prevents Chinese military
involvement in any neighbouring country (i.e. India or Vietnam)
is the fear of American nuclear retaliation against China. The
Chinese leadership appear to be genuinely convinced that the
Americans wish. to attack China and, despite their propaganda
about nuclear weapons being "paper tigers", there is little
doubt that they take seriously the threat of a massive nuclear
attack. Although this fear does not prevent China from pursuing
policies of hostility towards the United States it does seem
to prevent them from pushing these policies to the point of
direct confrontation. It is therefore arguable that the
Chinese could be, deterred from taking action against Hong Kong
by the threat of American retaliation against China.
It is,
/however,
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