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Significance of Hong Kong's Economic Value to China
35. Hong Kong in our hands is of considerable economic value to China but its contribution to China's economy is clearly not indispensable and as that economy develops the Colony's importance Such evidence as as an earner of foreign exchange will diminish.
we have indicates that there are differences within the Chinese leadership between the extremist group inspired by Mao who are unreservedly in favour of pushing the Cultural Revolution to the limit and encouraging "making revolution" inside China and outside it, and a second group of a more moderate and realist attitude including the Prime Minister, Chou En-lai. It is possible that the first group might be willing to sacrifice the economic benefits derived from Hong Kong in the interests of intensifying the confrontation with the Hong Kong Government.
While the second group would be disposed to control the level of confrontation in order to avoid disrupting the Colony to an extent which would damage China's economic interests. In the present state of confusion in China it is by no means certain that the second group would prevail. Soviet jibes about China's tolerance of foreign
colonial possessions on its territory will not be helpful to them.
CHINESE ATTITUDE AND INTENTIONS TOWARDS HONG KONG
玉の
General Principles
36. The Chinese regard Hong Kong and the New Territories as part of China. It is doubtful whether they see any essential difference between the status of the Crown Colony and the leased territory. They consider that all the 19th century treaties with the Great Powers were "unequal" and that the present Chinese Government should not necessarily continue to be bound by them. The most specific official statement about the way in which the Chinese regard the trezties relating to Hong Kong appeared in a People's Daily editorial of 8 March, 1963, which said that "with regard to the outstanding issues which are a legacy of the past we have always held that when conditions are ripe (such questions) should be settled peacefully through negotiations. Pending a settlement, the status quo should be maintained. Within this category are the questions of Hong Kong, Kowloon
and Macao."
37. It is inconceivable that any communist Chinese government
It is would negotiate an extension of the Hong Kong lease. extremely unlikely that a Chinese government of any complexion would be prepared to do so, although there is a remote possibility that by 1997 (when the lease expires), there might be a government in Poking which would be prepared to acquiesce in an extension of the status quo without any formal re-negotiation
of the lease.
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