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There are no reliable figures for long-term capital movements, but such indications as there are suggest that they are small and can safely be ignored for present
purposes.
6. On invisible account (itoms (b), (c), (e) and (f)) the U.K. showed a net deficit in 1966 of £10 million. After the loss of Hong Kong and on the assumptions in paragraph 3 items (b) and (e) would simply cease.
do not know the composition of (c), but the figure is small and some part of it may well represent transfer It is payments (rather than payments for services). therefore assumed as a matter of convenience that these U.K. earnings would cease and their cessation would release no resources. While the balances are assumed to be blocked, earnings on them would continue to accrue ((*)). Although these would not be transferred they
would be recorded as an invisible debit in the basic balance of payments ("financed" by a corresponding monetary inflow). While this debit would be reduced in so far as releases from the balances were made to U‚K, residents, for present purposes we assume that a debit of £15 million would continue. The overall result on invisibles
therefore would be that we would show a total net deficit of 15 million, as opposed to 0 million in 1966 1.0. a net loss to the balance of payments of £5 million.
the visible
7. The effects of the loss of Hong Kong account would depend to a major extent on the use (if any) to which the resources currently used for exports for Hong Konɛ were put (and at what speed) and how far U.K.
The extreme
resources were fully employed at the time.
worst assumptions might be:
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