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23. Accordingly, an estimate of persons to be evacuatod, based on tho
first throc catogorios in paragraph 21, and those Chinese who are
particularly vulnerable to retaliation (paragraph 22), is of tho
ordor 166,000 211,000 of which 90,000 - 135,000 would bo Chinoso.
24.
In the circumstancos outlined in paragraph 19, a successful
ovacuation of this size would be highly improbablo, in which case tho
priorities might bo:-
(i) the exceptionally vulnorable persons in all
four categories with thoir families;
(ii) all-non Chinese womon and childron;
(iii) all other categories, excepting troops required
to cover ovacuation;
(iv) troops covering evacuation.
25. Ronoval of Assots or Installations. Wo do not think it feasible in
the circumstancos envisaged to ronovo anything oxcopt the most sensitivo
of itons and then only if they cannot be effectively destroyed, M.O.D.,
D.I.S. and Hong Government to list anything that might fall into this
category.
PROBLEMS OF EVACUATION
26. The Military Screon. The plan for withdrawal would probably involve
falling back on to porimotor zonos of defonco around the airport (Kai Tok,
on Kowloon Poninsula) and Stanley (on Victoria Island) onclosing in those
arcas those who wore to be evacuatod. The physical problong of extricating
ourselves in the face of rising internal disorder and Chinese harassment
would clnost certainly call for additional military support particularly
in the air and on tho soa. Such support from our own resources night not
bo at hand and it is essential wo should talk to the Americans and
Australians at the planning stage to see whether they would bo proparod to
holp us in this situation.
27. Tino Factor.
of ovacuation.
This is vital to the scopo and detailed arrangements
Past military assessments have envisaged that we could hang
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/on
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