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arc widely distributing mainland literature and propaganda; Comunist-
owned cinonas aro showing films designed to extol the Maoist doctrine
and the achievements of China. Those are pressures which recent events
have shown that the great majority of Chinose in Hong Kong are capable
of withstanding; wo hoar that Communist newspaper sales have slumpod and
that Communist cinomas are half empty. But the long term impact could bo
sovoro in a situation of waning public confidence induced by other
mounting prossuros,
this
18, Gonorel Effects. The dangor is not so much that singly thoco
prossuros could by thonsolvos malo our position untenablo (although in
one or two casos, o,g. the cutting-off of air and soa sorvicos,
might not be improbablo) but that applied systomatically over a prolonged
period they would undormino the Colony's hope of survival against the
night of China. Public and business confidonco could not be maintained
if prosont conditions continuod indefinitoly; if things did not got
better before long, they would inovitably got worso. The overstretching of
the forces maintaining public ordor, the orosion of public confidonco,
the undermining of the econoLy these are the factors which would interact
on oach other and speed the process of disillusionment and disintogration.
Once the great mejority of the Chinese sau little or no prospect of our
winning, the will to resist would ovaporate; their likely roaction,
instead of being passivo, would be to join the other side, in which caso
wo would probably be forced to withdrawn in an atmosphore of animosity
(if not open hostility) from those who once supported our administration.
CIRCUMSTANCES AND TIMING OF WITHDRAWAL
19. If wo accopt that at the prosent tino the Chinose are noro concerned
to humiliato us in Hong Kong than to force us out, thoro socnc no prospect
of our boing able to nogotiato our withdrawal. (It-would not seen, however,
that wo have anything to lose by trying to nogotiato, since sono
understanding with the Chinoso is alone likely to provide the necessary
conditions evon for the very limited objectives which wo hope to achieve
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