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Hong Kong are the most effective means of countering it. The situation
is, nevertheless, unpredictable and we should be careful to review our
policies when there is any indication of a change in the situation.
Evacuation planning
15. The whole situation in Hong Kong turns on the morale and confidence
of the local population, and in particular of the Chinese police. It is
therefore vital that there should be no leak about the preparation of con-
tingency plans for withdrawal. Once local support and confidence is lost,
the situation could deteriorate overnight. Once we are seen to be making
U
any move which could be interpreted as preparatory towards withdrawal,
our control would effectively be lost. This means that, in our opinion,
the
existence of any contingency plan for evacuation must not become known to
acting
anyone in Hong Kong, save the Governor and the GOC, and we are advised that Far East
it should not become known also to the headquarters in Singapore, save only
for the Commander-in-Chief.
16. This places a great limitation on the detail into which the preparation
of plans could go. It will be seen from paragraph 13 above that the numbers
for whom we are responsible are very large. The plan for withdrawal would
probably involve falling back on perimeter zones of defence around the
airport on Kowloon peninsular and Stanley on Victoria Island, enclosing in
these areas those who were to be evacuated. Past military assessments
have been that we could hold on for no more than 48 hours against strong
Chinese militarypressure, although a longer period is conceivable if the
only threat posed is of internal disorder.
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In the circumstances in which
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