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Kontract from letter of T.A.K. Elliott Hong Kong to E. Balland F.D. copied to Mr. Carter. 16%
(origon 150
on. 150 65/51/01
3.
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The second is the suggestion in paragraph 11 that the "only deterrent" in the event of the Chinese "threatening" military intervention, would be the "threat
This seems of all-out war, including nuclear retaliation".
to me to miss, or at least to blur over, one vitally important point in all this, the position of the Americans, A threat of "all-out war" over Hong Kong, "including nuclear retaliation" might very well carry very little weight with the Chinese, if it came from f.M.G. only and it seemed clear that the Americans would give us no support, On the other hand, especially given current Chinese pro- occupations and dissensions and the equivocal position of the Army, a simple threat of intervention by the Americans e.g. to protect their own nationals and interests here if the Chinese intervened physically, could to my mind have the most powerful deterrent effect, even if nothing was said whatever about nuclear retaliation or even determination to proceed to all-out war.
13.
Long-
40
No doubt this whole question of the American position is now being vigorously examined at home. term policy planning on our part which exuined the problem of Hong Kong simply from the standpoint of our own capabilities and interests and took no account of those of the Americans could very well, as I am sure you will agree, be dangerous and misleading.
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