TNAG-0040-FCO40-76-Border-incidents-with-China-1968 — Page 14

A major influx of illegal immigrants

across the land frontier presents a

threat to the Colony, but this is not

expected to develop unless conditions

in Kwangtung deteriorate seriously, and

certainly not while the C.C.A. maintains

its control of the border area. This

control appears likely to be maintained in

the foreseeable future in the absence of

any deliberate change of policy by the

C.P.G. permitting refugees to enter the

Colony as in 1962.

Defeated factional elements may attempt

to take refuge in the Colony, but there

is no indication that this is likely to

occur in any significant numbers, other

than by sea.

A resurgence of premeditated militant

border activity is unlikely while the

present official communist policy continues.

There is, however, the danger of a local

spontaneous incident developing into major

conflict, thus possibly obliging the C.C.A.

to support Chinese Territory elements.

The Sha Tau Kok "escapees" still constitute

a localised threat to security, though this

is likely to decrease as their influence

wanes.

SECRET