TNAG-0034-FCO40-70-Relations-with-China-1968 — Page 151

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foodstuffs, in trade through Canton or in manufactures for

which Hong Kong is the outlet.

7. All this, in my view, points to a possible long term

solution of the Hong Kong problem, If China is going to

break up into regional power bases the power base that includes

or has the prospect of including Hong Kong is going to enjoy

a tremendous advantage over the others.

8.

Although therefore this is a long term proposition, which

we have no prospect of implementing now, I submit that what

we must be on the lookout for, and, to the extent we discreetly

can, encourage, is the emergence of a liberal movement in the

Kwantung area strong enough to have the prospect of forming an

eventual Chinese Government and with which we could eventually

negotiate the peaceful transfer of Hong Kong. If such a

movement develops we should even consider making it known

before the event that we would be prepared to deal with it

over Hong Kong.

9. It may be objected that if we showed our hand in this way

we would do a disservice to the liberal movement which would

then be branded in Chinese opinion generally as a puppet of

the foreigners. This is admittedly a danger but not necessarily

a serious one. Sun Yat-sen made his revolution with avowed

and open foreign help, and this only a few years after the

Boxer rebellion, one of the worst anti-foreign manifestations

in China's history. My own hunch is that if an ideological

change does take place in China it will develop much more

quickly than it did in Sun Yat-sen's time.

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/10.

I am