CONFIDENTIAL
-2-
(A) A CONTINUATION OF THE PRESENT SITUATION FOLLOWING UPON THE
GRANT OF AN EXIT VISA TO HOPSON, 1.E. ON THE BASIS THAT THIS ACTION DOES NOT HERALD ANY FURTHER VISIBLE IMPROVEMENT IN
RELATIONS: AND
(B) A SITUATION IN WHICH THE CHINESE GRANT ALL OUR EXIT VISA APPLICATIONS AND THIS, WITH ANY MATCHING GESTURES WE MAY
BE ABLE TO MAKE, PRODUCES A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN RELATIONS.
IN NOVEMBER IN ANY CASE A DECISION WILL HAVE TO BE TAKEN ABOUT THE REMISSION OF HSUEH'S SENTENCE. EVEN IF GREY HAD NOT BEEN RELEASED BY THEN, THERE WOULD APPEAR TO BE STRONG ARGUMENTS IN FAVOUR OF LETTING HSUEH OUT WITH FULL REMISSION. THERE IS POSSIBLY THEREFORE SOMETHING TO BE SAID FOR TRYING TO MAKE SOME USE OF HIM AS A BARGAINING COUNTER WHILE WE CAN.
3. THERE WOULD OF COURSE BE THE PROBLEM OF ENSURING THAT ANY ACT OF CLEMENCY ON YOUR PART COVERING HSUEH AND LO ALONE WOULD IN FACT ACHIEVE THE DESIRED RESULT OF GREY'S RELEASE. UNFORTUNATELY IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT WE COULD OBTAIN ANY FIRM UNDERTAKING FROM THE CHINESE. IF WE WERE TO ASK THE CHARGE D'AFFAIRES IN PEKING TO PUT THE PROPOSITION TO THE CHINESE THAT HSUEH AND LO BE RELEASED IMMEDIATELY IN HONG KONG IN RETURN FOR THE RELEASE OF GREY, THE MOST THAT WE WOULD EXPECT WOULD BE SOME VAGUE FORM OF WORDS INDICATING THAT THEY MIGHT BE PREPARED TO CONSIDER THIS: BUT IT IS ALMOST CERTAIN THEY WOULD NOT BE PREPARED TO GO FURTHER. WE IMAGINE THAT, LIKE US, YOU WOULD BE RELUCTANT TO USE N CNA IN HONG KONG TO PROBE CHINESE INTENTIONS, PARTICULARLY WHEN MEMBERS OF THEIR OWN STAFF WERE DIRECTLY INVOLVED. THE COVERT CHANNELS WHICH HAVE BEEN TRIED IN THE PAST, WHATEVER THE RESULTS THEY MIGHT YIELD IN THE LONG TERM, ARE UNLIKELY TO ENABLE US TO REACH ANY QUICK ASSESSMENT OF THE CHINESE ATTITUDE TO THIS PARTICULAR TRANSACTION.
CONFIDENTIAL
/IF THEREFORE
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