CONFIDENTIAL
FOREIGN OFFICE TELEGRAM NO.76 TO PEKING
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IT SURELY FOLLOWS THAT THEY WILL BE EVEN LESS CONCERNED BY IMPLIED THREAT OF WITHHOLDING RENEWAL OF RESIDENCE PERMITS. SINCE MOST OF THEIR STAFF HAVE BEEN ON TIME-EXPIRED PERMITS FOR SOME MONTHS ALREADY, THERE WOULD BE NO ADDITIONAL THREAT IN CONTINUING THIS SITUATION. IF WE NOW GRANTED ANY OF THE PERMITS(EVEN FOR A PERIOD OF A MONTH AT A TIME), WE WOULD IN FACT BE MAKING A CONCESSION RATHER THAN INCREASING PRESSURE.
3. AS REGARDS (D) THE GOVERNOR OF HONG KONG HAS ALREADY EXPRESSED RESERVATIONS ABOUT A MAJOR ACT OF CLEMENCY (HONG KONG TELEGRAM NO 50) AND MADE SUGGESTIONS ABOUT A POSSIBLE STEP FORWARD ON EXCHANGES
262) (HONG KONG TELEGRAM NO.92 TO CO JUST RECEIVED). WE SHARE HIS DOUBTS
ABOUT A MAJOR ACT (SUCH AS THE RELEASE OF ALL PRISONERS) WHICH MIGHT AT THIS STAGE MAKE THE COMMUNISTS BELIEVE THAT PRESSURE FOR A MACAO-TYPE SITUATION COULD STILL BE EFFECTIVE.
4.
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IF A MAJOR CONCESSION IN HONG KONG IS RULED OUT AND, AS YOU HAVE AGREED, PROGRESS IS ALSO IMPOSSIBLE ON PRISONER VISITS UNLESS THE CHINESE MAKE ANOTHER MOVE AND, FURTHER, IF WE ACCEPT YOUR ARGUMENTS AGAINST RETALIATION IN LONDON, WE CAN ONLY CONTINUE TO RESTRAIN PUBLICITY AND DO NOTHING FURTHER IN THE HOPE THAT THE CHINESE WILL EVENTUALLY DECIDE EITHER TO RELEASE GREY OR TO ACCEPT OUR TENTATIVE EXCHANGE OFFER. IT WOULD BE DIFFICULT TO EXPLAIN SUCH INACTIVITY
IN THE FACE OF MOUNTING PARLIAMENTARY OR PUBLIC PRESSURE (WHICH IS LIKELY TO GROW WHETHER WE ENCOURAGE PUBLICITY OR NOT). TO SUGGEST IN A PARLIAMENTARY STATEMENT (PARAGRAPH 4 OF YOUR TELEGRAM NO 48) THAT ACTION MIGHT BE TAKEN AGAINST THE N. C. N. A. WOULD BE TO RISK EITHER BEING FORCED UNWILLINGLY INTO SUCH ACTION IF THE CHINESE FAILED TO RESPOND OR BEING SHOWN UP AS QUOTE PAPER TIGERS UNQUOTE
5. THE BEST HOPE STILL SEEMS TO BE TO WORK FOR AN EXCHANGE OF N.C.N.A. PRISONERS IN HONG KONG FOR GREY, BUT WE NEED SOME MEANS OF
OVERCOMING CHINESE RELUCTANCE. WE ARE NOT (REPEAT NOT) ENTIRELY CONVINCED THAT A THREAT TO CLOSE THE N.C.N.A. IN LONDON COULD NOT BE USED, PERHAPS IN PRIVATE SO AS TO SAVE FACE. ONE POSSIBILITY WOULD BE TO SUMMON THE CHINESE CHARGE HERE TO DISCUSS TIME-EXPIRED RESIDENCE PERMITS FOR N.C.N.A. WE COULD SAY THAT NO ACTION HAD BEEN TAKEN AGAINST THOSE CONCERNED BECAUSE WE HOPED THAT THE MATTER
/OF
CONFIDENTIAL
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