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and
from the local angle, it does appear that even in the last for months the continued presence of the Mission in Poking has brought some advantages to us here. I do not suppose that the border negotiations could have got under way if initial discussions on the problem had not taken place in Teking; although the negotiations wore far from being a diplomatic olecess for us, the fact that they have brought relative poaco on the frontier for a period will probably prove to have been of benefit to Hong Kong. If we had to rely on our contoota with the local Communista for making cur views known to the Chinose, the prospects of returning eventually to acme sort of modua vivendi̟ horo vould, in my view, bo lesa hopeful than they are now. On the other hand, it is certainly true that in a number of fields (0.5. policy towards the Communist press and schools) Government here have been and are → 111 inhibited by the thought that firm measures in H.k. will bring further difficultica to the Kission in Peking. of course, Government's froedom of action in H.K. has always been circumscribed by the need to consider the vulnerable position of the Colony vis-a-vis the Chinese Government; but the existence of the Mission in roking is a material additional complication.
4.
-J
+
In the outcome, I ropcat I do not think that it should be assumed that Hong Kong's intercats would be best served now by the complete removal of the Hission from Peking. Whether the threat of suspension of relations would be an effective bargaining counter in negotiations aimed at casing the position of the Hission is another matter; but I suppose that it is a fairly sound principle that threats to do something that one is actually reluctant to carry out do not usually cut much ice. In general, I bellove that we need to think very much hardor than we have in the past about the possibility of bringing pressure on the Chinese in other fiolda, ©.g. by the use of propaganda or economic measures.
5.
Finally, it seems to us here that the changes of the Chinoce in fact allowing the Wiccion to withdraw, or oven to be reduced in number significantly (as opposed to allowing stair to be relieved eventually, perhapo) without very extensive and unacceptably damaging concessions being made in Hong Kong, are pretty remote.
6.
I am sending a copy of this lotter to Michael Wilford ân Canhington, Duncan Katoon in Singapore and to Donald Ropcon in Fekings and also to Bunny Carter in the Commonwealth Office.
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(TaAoko Elliott)
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