SECRET
7.
8.
(ii)
as follows:
(a) The Communist hierarchy, after the events
of the past few days, genuinely do not know what to do:
(b) They have doubts as to the "suitability" of using Ho Yin in the present situation as he is a Macao man and not really well- known in Hong Kong:
(c) They are still awaiting instructions from China and, therefore, do not wish to take precipitate action:
(a) A form of blackmail, in that by keeping us
waiting they may force us to flap and offer terms which otherwise in the present conditions we should not be prepared to consider.
On "time is on our side", Mr. Q.W. Lee thought
(a)
This could be a straight comment on the fact that, given more time, the Communists would be able to increase their intimidation of the local population and allow the hierarchy time to reorganise their forces for a more efficient and successful operation or series of operations: but
(b) Knowing Mr. Ho as a wily, intelligent person
who is expert at communist type negotiations, he thought this could well be a "planted" remark for onward transmission mainly to harry us and force us into precipitate action in regard to the four demands etc: that given time with no communist successes locally, the communist forces themselves would be downhearted and the local population increasingly confident provided they were what Q.W. Lee termed "nursed along intelligently",
Our assessment of the above is as follows:
(a)
(b)
Re paragraph 4: there is reliable evidence that, in fact, the Communists are seeking to achieve a Macao type settlement:
Re paragraph 5: while local Communists appear to be awaiting instructions as to next major moves, token strikes apart, there is every possibility of a further confrontation with security forces on the ground:
(c) Re paragraph 6: bearing in mind that this
information has been obtained third hand one can but comment upon Q.W. Lee's impressions on the face of it, they appear to be reasonable appreciation of the present circumstances.
Our own assessment of the present situation is
SECRET
/(a)
No comments yet.
Private notes are available after approval.