TNAG-0005-FCO40-41-Departmental-briefs-about-Hong-Kong-1968 — Page 86

D., 32855 Ed (4200)

NOTHING TO BE WRITTEN IN THIS MARGIN

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LILE. The repair of the twenty-year Indo/

outward and

Pakistan quarrel, the

ig visible sign

of which Kashmere seems as far away as ever.

is

As long as it continues, this diverts resources

from development.

For Pakistan in particular

it will continue to dominate all her external

any major disintegration of India

policies:

would, of course, present Pakistan with an

opportunity for action in Kashmere which she

would find it difficult to resist.

45.

What of the possibility of Indian

disintegration ? The unifying force of the

Congress Party has been greatly weakened and the

fragility of an imperial amalgam of 500 million

people of different races and tongues is

becoming more evident; Nehru's ideal of a

modern secular union is becoming more difficult

for his successors to maintain.

The obvious

unifying factor in India, as elsewhere, is

if

the armed forces. For the shorter term, they

would probably act obediently in response to

the orders of a constitutional government;

Delhi's control over the country slipped too

much, however, the armed forces are likely

progressively to be impelled to take over or,

at least, to participate in the government.

A disintegrating India would pose the Western

countries with the same problem as faces some

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/ of them