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Dd. 32855 Ed (4200)
Confidential.
30.The southern tier (Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia and the Philippines) have the comfort
of being that much further away from China; they
are not as easily susceptible to Chinese pressure
subversive or otherwise, as their northern
neighbours, Not that the experience of the
Emergency (of the 1950s) or the PKI (of the 1960s
should cause any undue complacency in Kalaysia
or Indonesia. But each of these countries has
more to build on than those of the northern tier
stronger administrations in Malaysia and
Singapore; greater economic potential in
Indore sia; more likelihood of continued American
presence in the Philippie s.
31. The outcome of the Vietnam war is the undoubted key to what happens in South East Asia,
particulary in the northern tier. If the result
was a South Vietnam that looked as though it
could maintain its independence, with possible
U.S. economic and technical aid alone, the boost
to morale in South East Asia would be considerabl
If, however, the settlement looked like resulting
with
in due course in a Comuni st-dominated South
Vietnam, the urge to reinsure at China would
probably be ramount.
32.At the moment, Thailand is the most prospe-
rous of the northern tier countries but she
would suffer economically if American forces
were withdrawn from Vietnam and Thailand itself.
On the other hand, she might feel that the depar-
ture of those forces made her less exposed as
target for Chinese subversion. The Thai ki tradition of being on the winning side would
/probably
a
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