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Dd. 32855 Ed (4200)
reducing the
tensions between
them.
CONFIDENTIAL
ready to contribute. A Japanese Conservative
Government will probably wish to renew the
Security Treaty with the United States in 1970
and the American market will continue to provide
the fastest growing outlet for Japanese goods.
It would not be surprising if, in these circum-
stances, there was American pressure on Japan to
adopt in the 70s a more positive role in Asia,
including the defence sphere. How is Japan likely
to react to such pressure? Could the strong
Pacifist feelings of the Japanese and their
reluctance to "confront" China lead to a lurch to
the Left and a growing friendship with Peking?
On the other hard, if Japan could be persuaded
to play a defence role in Asia, would there be a
danger of a resurgence of militarism (possibly
even nuclear based)?
26. Cutside Asia, Japan will continue to pursue
her world-wide commercial interests, in many cases
to the detriment of Western European nations. She
is likely to extend still further into the
growing marlets of Latin America and Africa. As fifth
(already) the world's largest industrial power
she could play a much more influential part in
international politics than she has so far chosen
to do. Torn in a way between the West, where she
belongs economically, and the Afro-Asiars, to
whom she is tied historically and emotionally,
offend
she has sought to neither. And yet, of
course, she could be a unique bridge between North
and South and her influence on both coulà contri-
Dute to encimanimation, It is surely a gene- ral Western interest to encourage her to play such
a part.
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