TNAG-0005-FCO40-41-Departmental-briefs-about-Hong-Kong-1968 — Page 74

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development will present a greater threat to

Russian interests.

The eruption of the border dispute into

armed conflict is possible but unlikely in the

'70s; the Russians might be tempted to try to

create rurther buffer states on the Hongolian

pattern cr simply to administer a short sharp

lesson but they would probably be wary of biting

off more than they can chew; the Chinese could

attempt subversion in Russian territory.

19. Sino-Soviet relations, as such, are likely

to have little direct effect on the West. Any

significant development in those relations will

probably reflect changes in attitude of one or

both of the leaderships and such changes could

ce

be expected to lead independently to some shift

in Russian or Chinese policies towards the West.

Where the West will probably be most affected

is in the rest of Asia, in which Russia and

China do not have the inhibitions which restrain

their direct border relations.

20. We can expect. to see continued igEX

vigorous Sino-Soviet competition in Asia.

Sino-Indian relations are referred to in a later

section but xhy their rapid deterioration

leà directly to a marked increase in Soviet

attention to, and success in, India. Sino-

Pakistan relations flourished in direct con-

trast. But now Russia is courting Pakistan

sufficiently to make India apprehensive.

India and Pakistan have been ery wary of taking

Russia too much to Lask over Czechoslovakia. Can Russia, by supplanting Chinese influence in

/Pakistan

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