TNAG-0005-FCO40-41-Departmental-briefs-about-Hong-Kong-1968 — Page 69

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China

5. China is an enigma, a bundle of uncertain-

ties, an unpredictable volcano. This makes

especially rash any predictions as to how she

is likely to develop in the coming decade,

She has been over-rated in the recent past but

we should probably be careful not to swing over

into writing her down too much for the '70s.

Her potential for trouble, her capacity for

opportunitistic and sometimes illogical

action should still keep the West (and the

Soviet Union) on its toes.

6.

With the ending (presumably in the next

year or so) of the turmoil of the Cultural

Revolution and with the death of Mao (again

presumably by the early '70s) the bureaucrats

and technocrats are likely to come increasingly

to the fore and to concentrate on picking up

the bits. Three great internal problems

will confront them: how to limit the

population, how to feed it and how to keep

it united in one nation. An estimate of

China's population in the mid-'70s (based on

a 2% annual increase) is 900 million and it

will need intensive and intelligent use of

fertilisers (from plants yet to be built)

to produce sufficient food; failure to do so.

could contribute to widespread disorders.

Even if food keeps up with the population,

the margin of resources available for

investment will inevitably be modest to start

with and there will be a continuing shortage

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