HONG KONG
W
1967 to March 1973 the Hong Kong Government intends to provide 990,000 individual units of accom- modation in the form of resettlement and low cost housing.
WITHIN the six-year period April
This number is recommended in the recent Report of the Housing Board which Government has now accepted. The effect of the proposal on planning for the future by private enterprise is worth examination.
Housing figures given in the Housing Board Reports (March and October 1967) are shown in Table 1.
From 1954 to 1967 one million people were resettled and it is pro- bable that this figure will be doubled by 1973. The housing position in
March 1973 therefore could be that Government and Government-aided agencies would be housing more than 50 per cent. of the population. If Government is prepared to make such accommodation available for lower income groups, then any objections to such planning might be overruled on humanitarian grounds.
HOUSING-the outlook for
private enterprise
by Hugh Lim, Secretary, Hong Kong Society of Builders
"We must continue to rely sub- stantially on new private building, both because we are most unlikely to have the resources to do otherwise, and because we must not create a situation where a large part of the population has the privilege of having its housing subsidised from public re- venue to which the less fortunate minority contribute.
"An adequate field must therefore be left open to private enterprise housing: and Government subsidised housing must not be allowed to de- press rent below the level to which, with supply and demand in reasonable equilibrium. commercial rents might fall without inhibiting further private development."
It is presumed that the Financial Secretary would also have had in mind the very large number of small investors who rely for their susten- ance on their real estate investments, bought in most cases with life savings. Any depression in rentals would affect the purchasing power of these small investors, and with it the intrinsic value of their holdings. The overall
Table 1
However, the humanitarian aspect cannot be divorced from the econo- mic. This would appear to have been borne in mind by the Financial Secre- tary in his Budget Speech (1965) when he was reported to have said:
Number of persons accommodated (Urban and New Territories) in:-
economic position could be disturbed.
No issue can be taken with the con- clusions reached by the Housing Board in its Reports, and the optim- ism expressed by the Commissioner of Ratings & Valuations in his Report of Unoccupied Premises 1968, based on the decline in the number of va- cant premises; but neither of these Reports gives any direct indication as to what the "adequate field" for pri- vate enterprise housing might be.
The "Wah Kui Yat Po" newspaper dated April 2, 1968, in an article on population projections, reproduced a chart giving the estimated popula- tion for the years 1966 to 1981. From this chart, on the middle projection, the estimated population as at mid- year 1967 was 3,815,400 and for mid-year 1973 would be 4,329,900: i.e. an increase of 514.500.
At first sight it might appear that Government would be planning to provide housing, in the six year period, for more people than the na- tural estimated increase in the popula- tion. Any such supposition would as- sume that:-
a)
b)
c)
31-3-65
31-3-66
31-3-67
(a)
Government and Government aided housing
(b) residual in private housing
1,098,900 1.238.900 1,354,300 1,562,700 1,556,700 1,545,000
d)
(c)
total housed in permanent accommodation
2,661.600
2,795,600
2,899,300
etc.)
982,900
(e)
estimated total population
3,644,500
931,900
3,727,500
Percentages:-
(a)/(e)
30.15
33.24
(b)/(e)
42.88
41.76
910,400
3,809,700
35.55
40.55
(d)/(e)
26.97
25.00
23.90
100.00
100.00
100.00
(a)/(c)
41.29
44.32
46.71
(b)/(c)
58.71
55.68
100.00
100.00
53.29
100.00
(d) temporary housing (squatters
no further clearance of squat- ter areas was envisaged. the many in inadequate ac- commodation would not be looking for something better. those in resettlement and low cost housing would not be looking for something better, the entire increase of 514,500 would be seeking accommoda- tion in either resettlement or low cost housing.
None of the these assumptions can be taken as correct but could be used as a basis for an examination of the outlook for private enterprise housing in the near future.
In 1954, when the resettlement programme began, the population was estimated (Government publication "A Problem of People" refers) as be- ing some 2,500,000 of which some 300,000 could be placed in the cate- gory of squatters, or as those eligible for resettlement. Since then, some 1,000,000 people have been resettled, yet vide the Housing Board Report
Far East BUILDER, July 1968.
35
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