Directory_and_Chronicle_1935 — Page 388

A 6

CHINA

In previous reports it has been customary to issue a caution in regard to the interpretation of this table owing to the intervention of certain transhipping or dis- tributing ports between China and the actual countries of origin and destination of cargoes, first in importance among these intervening places being Hongkong, followed by other transhipment centres, such as the Japanese ports, the Canadian and United States ports, Rotterdam, Antwerp, and Genoa. In the case of imports, at any rate, this caution is hardly necessary any longer, owing to the introduction of the Consular Invoice system and of a standard application form which calls for a declaration as to country of origin or destination instead of merely the port of shipment or discharge. This has already almost eliminated the direction-of-trade difficulty in the case of imports, being the reason, for instance, for the decline from 15.22 to only 3.28 in the percentages credited to Hongkong in respect of inward trade for the years 1931 and 1933 respectively. The percentages on the export side of the table have not been reduced in the same proportion, at least as regards Hongkong, as buyers in that Colony can seldom know at the time of ordering exactly how their purchases of Chinese produce will be split up and distributed eventually.

From these explanations it will be gathered that the data given on the import side of the above table is just about as reliable as such statistics can be made, and it is clear, therefore, that while the British Empire maintains its leading place in the list as the greatest source of supplies for China, the United States easily takes first place as an individual country in this connection, followed by Great Britain, Japan and Germany in that order. Unfortunately, for the reasons already given, the direction finally taken by a great deal of China's export produce remains obscure.

At the very outset of an examination into the figures given, it will be found that the British colony of Hongkong takes one-fifth of the whole export trade, and, without making any analysis of that colony's statistics, it is impossible even to state in which direction (north, south, east, or west) or, in what proportions, the final distribution of cargoes was made. Taking the table as it stands, therefore, it is only possible to say that Hongkong, the United States, Japan, and the United Kingdom took first, second, third, and fourth places respectively in the list of countries of declared final destina- tion for Chinese produce.

The next thing to be pointed out concerning the foregoing table is that the 1932 figures include the value of the foreign trade of the Manchurian ports for part of that year. It follows that in comparing the columns for 1932 and 1933 allowance must be made for a considerable decrease in the figures for the latter year, on account of the lesser area that they cover in the case of both imports and exports, as on account of a slight general decrease in the case of imports, the extent of the discount to be made amounting to nearly 18 per cent. for imports and over 20 per cent. for exports. Consequently it will be found that where reductions in the value of statistics are recorded against particular countries, these reductions may be accounted for or over-accounted for by the general-decrease allowances just mentioned.

The improvement in the import statistics for Australia was obviously due to the greater purchase of wheat and wheat flour from that country, amounting in value to an increase of over 22 million dollars; the decrease value figures for arrivals from British India and French Indo-China were almost entirely due to reduced imports of rice and paddy; Great Britain sold over 17 million dollars' worth less of cotton piece goods to China, and Japan over 37 million dollars' worth less of the same class of merchandise, well over a third of the latter country's great loss of trade being thus accounted for; while the large deficit in America's import account may be ascribed principally to a 90 million dollar drop in her sales of raw cotton and a 36 million drop in her sales of wheat and wheat flour. Still greater caution is required in connection with the comparative statistics recorded for exports, for the reasons already given; but there is one outstanding factor, which, if borne in mind, sufficiently clarifies the situation in regard to the almost general decreases shown in the export column for 1933. Risking the reiteration, it must be stated that this factor is the inclusion in the 1932 figures of the statistics for the immense export trade from Manchuria (the Manchurian import trade is much less important) for the first half of that year, which trade amounted to 42.6 per cent. of the entire export transactions of the country for the same period; so that, as Manchuria is almost the only source of the world's supply of the soya bean, the absence from the Chinese Customs Returns during the year under review of the usual impressive statistics for beans, beancake, bean oil, and, to a lesser degree, Manchuria's former share of a few other agriculture products, may be taken as the reason for the greater part of the decreases shown in the export

accounts.