Directory_and_Chronicle_1908 — Page 730

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"Silver shows a movement of Hk. Tls. 19,332,738 imported, of which a little more than a fourth was in bars and ingots, and Hk. Tls. 38,010,606 exported, of which a fifth was uncoined; on the balance, 2 million taels in bars and 17 million taels in coin (together, Hk. Tls. 18,677,868) left the country. Of bars imported, nearly a half was returned from Vladivostock, and of coin, over a half came from Hongkong; of bars exported, nine-tenths went to India, and of coin, nine-tenths to Hongkong; the movement to and from American and European ports was unimportant. Practically the entire movement of uncoined silver was at Shanghai. Of coined silver, the income and outgo between North and Mid China and foreign ports were about equal; but on the balance, the Fukien and Kwangtung ports lost Hk. Tls. 19,109,805 to their financial centre, Hongkong. This continued drain of coin from South China is so significant of some unrecorded movement that I repeat what I said in my report for 1905-“For 1904 I had to note that the southern ports lost nearly 12 million taels in coin; and, with a continuing loss amounting to 17 million taels in 1905, and an aggregate of 63 million taels in the five years 1901-05, there is either a concealed return movement of money, possibly down from Hupeh and Kiangsi, or we have here a measure of the unrecorded importation in the pockets of repatriated emigrants of the coin they bring back with them from their exile, returned to commercial use by this channel." Mengtsz received 2 million taels in Tonkin dollars, but, as was also the case in 1905, there is no record of any return_movement. While Hongkong drew from South China to the extent of 19 million taels, Shanghai drew from its commercial territory a net increase to its stock of silver of 14 million taels. of which there came as balances 23 millions from the North. 93 millions from Yangtsze ports, and 3 millions from central ports, while 2 millions were lost to the South.

"Balance of Trade-The net foreign import trade (c.i.f. value) exceeded the foreign export trade (fob. value) in 1906 by 74 per cent., a percentage of excess nearly two and a half times that of the last normal year, 1903, but, less than the excess, 97 per cent., of 1905. An attempt was made in my last report to throw some light on the financial conditions affecting the China trade, which enabled this large excess of imports to be carried without an entire dislocation of trade; these conditions, however, only affected operations as far as the original importer, on whose shoulders the burden has lain for two years. The consuming market has not lightened this burden, and the future must be looked to for relief. The political conditions affecting trade have been so confusing that it would be hopeless to attempt to draw any exact inference from them; and the effect of the climatic conditions will be as much manifested in the trade of the coming year as in that of the year now past. All that can be done now is to give an estimate of the international balance of indebtedness of China on the basis of the actual trade of 1906 : —

Liabilities.

Value of merchandise imported in 1906..........Hk. Tls. 410,270,082 Loans and indemnities

Invisible liabilities, estimate of 1903

"

38,500,000 32,000,000

480,770,082

Assets.

39

Value of merchandise exported in 1906......Hk. Tls. 236,456,739 Net export of treasure from commercial area Invisible assets, estimate of 1903, less certain

known deductions

1,325,059

384,781,798

147,000,000 17

DIFFERENCE TO BE ACCOUNTED FOR...........Hk. Tls. 95,988,284

"This unprovided balance, increased by the net value inward of the unrecorded trade through Talien and other channels, and diminished by the net value outward of the unrecorded trade by the land frontier, is our only measure of the amount, in other forms than irredeemable paper money, of the cost of evacuation,' which has replaced the 'war remittances' of the years immediately prece:ling, and which have enabled the import trade to be financed without disorganising exchange."

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