1937-06-22 — Page 3

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JAPANESE SEA POWER MEASURES

What Is The Policy Behind It?

(BY SIR HERBERT RUSELL.

in the United Services Review.")

The blunt refusal of the Japanese Government" to accept the capital-ship limitations agreed to during the last London Naval Conference, from which Japan withdrew shortly after ̈it ̧ had started, has been followed by a crop of rumours and specula- tlons: Some of these-probably most of them-are merely fan- tastic. One American, newspaper credits Japan with having com- pleted the design of a 201p-gun battleship. There is not the least reason for assuming that because Japan declined to ablige the London Conference, "at which her ratio of Inferiority was reaffirmed, she intends to do anything spectacular such as might embarrass the Treaty Pawers.

AMERICAN OPINION

AGAINST

CHOLERA

Authorities Continue Fight For Final

Eradication

A warning that summer is once more appearing and that precau- tions should be taken against cholera was contained in the first bulletin sued recently by Dr. Wu Lien-teh, chairman of the Central Cholera Bureau. The following rules of prevention were also given“

Be careful in what you eat and drink, especially cold and TAW things.

Avall yourself of anti-cholera in-. oculation, freely offered by the municipalities and see that your family, servants and friends do the same, 'and··

S

As far as the authorities are con- cerned, Shanghai, which has been free from cholera for the past four years, is again well prepared against any outbreak. pointed out in the bulletin that in addition to the regular inspection of foods and beverages, all three municipalities possess excellent

I WELS

pure water supplies. Further, as in previous years, steps have been taken to make such water available to a large portion of the poorer classes through free hydrants or sale at nominal prices. To safe- guard the community of Pootung. where in the past cholera has usually appeared early, a new waterworks system has been es- tablished by the City Government,

It is, indeed, possible that she fattitude towards questions which intends to maintain the 18in. gun have caused concern owing to their as her cardinal naval weapon, such threat of international repercus- guns being mounted in the battle-sions has become very much more ships Mutsu and Nagato, and the placatory than it was a year ago." British Admiralty is so little con- cerned at such a prospect that it

JAPAN'S "MILITARY.PARTY."

As soon as any gastro-intestinal upset appears, seek proper medical has made it very clear there is no Une difficulty in trying to fathom xid and at once proceed to hos- intention of going beyond the 14in. Japanese, naval polley to-day lièspital if cholera-like symptoms ap- gun in our new capital ships. In-in-"the struggle of the "military pear.". The health authorities will cidentally, this decision rather party" for dominance in, national do the rest. suggests Admiralty disregard in affairs. How far is naval policy general of the various rumours to really national policy? Before at- which I have alluded.

tempting to answer this question it will, naturally be asked just what meant by naval polley? I should The general idea is that Japan-define this as a general perception ese naval policy is largely influen-of the task which would confront ced and shaped by United States Japanese sea power in the event naval policy. Actually it would be of war and material preparations very much nearer the truth to put judged to be best suited to the ful- it the other way round. The Ja-Alment of this task. The fact panese realize that they could not that "Japan can set her own hope to maintain a strenuous naval geographical limits to a sea war race with the United States. Nor renders it easier to estimate the do they see any reason why they talk should be in open rivalry with that country. On the other hand, American opinion is not altogether easy as to Japanese aims, although I think that distrust is probably declining and that the bogy of the "Yellow Peril" in relation to the coast of California is now Just about as dead as mutton.

The fact is-and America is realizing this more clearly-that next to Great Britain no country ta so absolutely dependent upon the sea as Japan. But America also argues that, since she has no thought of interfering with trade freedom in the Pacific Ocean, why need Japan insist that a ratio of 5-3 in naval strength is quite in- adequate to ner security? The question is a legitimate one. Ja pan, having broken away from the Washington Treaty, now holds her- self free to build up to parity with the United States. Why does she want this?

PARITY AND PRESTIGE

The truth is she does not really want it at all. What a country may claim as her right, as a ques tion of prestige, and what she actually designs to do by way of demonstrating this right may be very different matters.. Her geographical position puts Japan In a particularly strong strategical position. She only visualizes & comparatively contiguous war zone, and any Power wanting to Aght her by sea must bring the war in- to that zone. Russia attempted to do this, in rather a shambling manner it is true, with disastrous non-success. If the portenta are borne out she will be in a position to attempt it again some day, but that cannot be for many years yet, and the remote possibility is not reflected in current Japanese naval politics.

The possession of the great Bingapore base will put this coun- try in a position to dispute any Japanese "sweep” over a wide tract of the Pacific, but this is a defen- sive purview. The place is too far tq serve as an operational base whence to carry the war into the most vital waters to Japan across which pass her communications with the Asiatic mainland. Our tenure of Hong Kong in the event of war with Japan would be pre- carious.

BRITISH FLAG OFFICER'S VIEW

One of our most distinguished | admirals, who commanded a battle division at Jutland, in the course of a letter to me some time ago said: "We could never coerca Ja- pan by war:" Farhaps this should not be taken too literally, for more than ever the course and"issue" of a great war are likely to be deter- mined by economic endurance, But I do think the admiral's Viaw represents the opinion of Japanese naval thought. How far that thought seriously; visualizes ́ ́any possibility that Great Britain may ever attempt to coerce Japan by war is quite another matter. Such a speculation Involves a very wide contemplation of what Japan, might do to provoke any attempt at coercion. Certainly her general

INVESTIGATION MADE

Considerable progress has been made in India and China in the during the past year, In India: os investigation of cholera problems

in Shanghai it has been ascertain- ed" that carriers (persons showing cholera organisms in their stools) are not particularly dangerous, if at all, and, according to Dr. Wu,

As I have said. any Power which wants to try and coerce Japan will have to go into the area of Japan's own choice to try and do it. Rus- sia may some day attempt the job overland, but any other big Power ared with a resolution to "turn-the Japs out" would have to come by. sea and, indeed, carry out the effort by both the active and silent pressure of sea power. “Japanese naval polies, therefore. broadly aims at rendering the prospect of & Pacific War altogether too dim. cult an adventure for any inter- ventionary-minded Power to enter upon unless positively driven to do is an open question whether the 80 by menace tq Itawn security— in fact, by being attacked first.

Numerically the Japanese Navy is the third strongest in the world. Relatively it stands higher than the 5-5-3 ratio. although, of Further work upon the cholera- course, the big programmes of Bri-like, vibrios found in various sam- tish shipbuilding will soon change ples of river and pond water proves all that. I believe that those who profess to anticipate some ' sen- sational revelation of Japanese constructional policy will be dis- appointed.

cumbersome restrictions In some countries imposed on crewi and passengers of vessels arriving from infected or suspected ports are worth the trouble and expense in- outrea

that under suitable laboratory con- ditions these may become quite indistingushable from the true cholera vibrio, producing death in "experimental animals.

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