1932-06-15 — Page 7

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HOW WE GET OUR WEATHER REPORTS.

MR. C. W. JEFFRIES ON A "PROPHETS METHODS AND TRIALS.

ADDRESS TO ROTARY CLUB,

The Rotary Club heard from Mr. W. Jeffries, Director of the Royal Observatory a witty and instructive address on the muthods of modern weather prophets. The address was interspers- ed with interesting sidelights on the prophets themselves, and not- A few amusing digs at their crites. Drawing up wonther reports is "noj áll jam." and the person who does it," is the recipient

of more chaff than any member of the community."

Mr. Jeffries gave many details of modern meteorology, and of the ways of typhoons, so far as those erratic creatures can be said to have ways" Frank scepticism was expressed about local wou- sher lore, which is as often wrong as a is right, and the reliability of Observatory forecasts stoutly upheld.

The Hon. Dr. The. President of the Club, was in the Chair.

THE WAYS OF THE TYPHOON.

Hat Al

Mr. Jeffries said:- Meteorology is

exact 5. Phi Hakennus was made

many years ago, and, in spite of the many advances of recent years it is still true.. In fnet the meteoro

the old time hermits started life

10

There are still may worthy citi rens, who, never having given the matter especial consideration, pro

HONG KONG DAILY PRESS. WEDNESDAY, JUNE 15, 1932.

to the impossibility of reproducing Ocensionally dire disaster accom feront prayas, causing damage to ths more detailed fontures, that the panies discomfort. These residents the ronal surface. Small craft hurry failure of many forecasts is due. 14 who still remember the tragedy, of to shelter at the earliest sign must be remembered that although September 1900 will need no p-danger, their occupants being well certain types of weather accompany minder of the toll of shipping aid aware fint destruction in the pro certain forms of pressure distribuhuman life that is exacted on such bable lot of those who linger. tion, without the details, errova ure ocensions. More frequently, exten. Sotamships leave the harbour when likely to ocoRT An essential fea sivo damage is done to trees and possible and anchor in one of the ture of successful forecasting is the vegetation generally, while the adjacent bays. All storm upon ability to anticipate the probable effect of continuous rain is ocen their anchors to relieve the strain chinages in pressure distribution, sionally manifested in landslides of the wind and son. The necessity"] and here again with only the broad and collapses

for this was exemplified in 1983, | eat features delineated on the map

when the Loongsang, being without before him, the forecaster frequent.

and sank near the prays, steam, rifted through the harbour ly urra. Sir Napier Show has epitomised the matter as follows.

"

How Do Typhoons Originato? How, when and where do typhoons originate.

11

be estimated by observing the fail The progress of the typhoon may

A gradual fall

The older books state that vigor pus convection of the air in tropi-of the barometer. en regions, aided by the deflective fores of the earth's rotation are

and recovery signify that the contro is at a considerable distance, whilst

a spiral a sharp decline and recovery indi ents its comparative sourness, In

wind velocity will be axperienced as the majority of cases the highost

the barometer begins to rise, and sharp fluctuations will bo noticed" during the more severe squalls.

ith

The Practice of weather fore casting depends mainly upon conclusions derived empirical ly from the study of synop tic weather charts. Ita rules are partly formulated and jointly responsible for "partly exercised by the sub-motion of the winds round a contre "conscious induction of pro- or vortex. This circulation attains

longed experience,"

a progressive motion through the earth's atmosphere, and owes energy to the latent heat of its agency of the upper currente in the copious precipitation. Of late yeara much of this has been doubted par. ticularly the vortical arature of the central region, much that is der tructive has been written, and little that is constructive. It seems ad remainder of the question, where by visable therefore to turn to the

reason of actual observation we are on" surer ground.

Valued Colleagues. Before leaving this part of the subject, Inst explain that the scarcity of observagina to which I have referred is only relative. Ac turally we are in receipt of reports from 45 to 60 stations twice daily, but the diffeulty of the problems becomes apparent, when't in remem larly distributed over soms 8 mil bered that the stations are irrogu

lion square miles. The observations Hong Kong Government from the are received free of charge to the weather Bureaus of the Far East, by the generosity of the Eastern originate between 10 and 18" lati: Typhoons (cyclones or hurricanes) Extension and Great Northern Telo de over the oceane to the east graph Companies. Several gratuward of continental areas and are wis radio services are received, most frequent in the suramer of the sien of motion is westward, with a bemisphere "concerned. The direc

among which the colletion of obser

at Cap Rock

Characteristics.

Local Bayings.

not,

Thora is much that could be said on this, subject, but considerations of time forbid. Of the many local

are corroot but many sayings concerning typhoons, some

owing to the impossibility of gene. ralizing upon phenomena no two of which seem

to be alike. Each

disregard the local sayings entirely typhoon has its distinctive features and Rotarians would do woll to and rely upon the signals and re- ports issued by de Royal Observa. tory for their information.

bally have some iden of elaborate instruments necessary for successful weather forecasting, or of extraor logist "whe has the duty of forecnal jalbury ability in some individua. jag is not regarded as an exact per-1 In this connection the public

on at all. He is told" so frankly male of the comparative ability of by all sorts of people, his efforts the weather forecastors of Far East are viticised art he is the recipient is interesting. I premise that of more chaff than any member of the saying concerning prophets and the" community. A sunny liepost honour in their own reantry has tion and placid temperament area particular application hereabouts,vations transmitted personally by

realised that when typhoons are at Rential if a weather prophet is to you will quickly be able to grader. Gherzi of Sienwei deserves varying inclination towards the pole a considerable distance from the In this connexion, it should be fuuction professionally, and con- the local product.

honourable mention and our most of the hemisphere, but there are Colony the announcement of their tinue to dwell amongst his fellow The Synoptic Chart... grateful, thanks... The weather ser-occasions when the track is definits positions depends upon reporta re- mortals. I am convinced shas all

ther forecasting is the synoptic lippines and Indo-China send with subject to recurvature. e. a quick seldom more than four times daily.

The Fagndation of modern wOL- vices of Japan, Forrnoon, the Phi

ly polewards and somo, where it is ceived at considerable intervals, as weather prophets, and after ca. chart or weather map. There Are great, promptitude daily, the wire change of 90 away from the Equa. There is no possibility of giving rears of varying length and invari

few for whom a map has no fasless stations at Pratas is an avalu-, sole failure, retired Lo

tor, resulting in eination: I must confess to a weakable

a north-eastern intermediate positions, except by caverns, and grew long bearda in

outpost Tuesd the

light direction of progress

estimation from the assumed direc ness for poring over the details of houses the hope of disguising themselves.

and

In the Far East the majority of tion and velocity. When, however, maps that has lasted since my school Waglan vigilant suntries on our be typhoons fora in the Pacific at the typhoon is affecting the baro- In many ways, however, we

days. A little while ago I was ex half. Finally the Colony, owes varying distances eastward of the meters and a bardier race today for the mo

amining one in company with an debe to the masters and officers of Philippine Islands, they advance Royal Chaervatory and the outlying dera prophet does not retire in aviator. The map gave some in- the mercantile marine who have towards the China coast on various, lighthouses of the Colony, its pro- disgust to a cavern, he walks boldly dication of the varying elevation of sent copies of their logs for nearly tracks, and in the cases of norther-gress can be much more definitely into the club, hoping everyone has China, and although probably not 60 years. Many vessels now comly courses or recurvature, eventualnoted. All information is passed to forgotten what an inefcient of a high degree of accuracy, was municute their observations by radioly reach Japan; other typhoons form the public, without delay, and tele dividual he is, and as I can state extremely interesting, and in many telegraphy and from experience he often gets away ways could be compared to a wen- observe hourly for our, benefit To Indo-China.

when requested, in the China Sea, and move towards phonic requests to the Director for with it. Nevertheless there is one ther map.

The islands of "For-the latest information can only ro occasion when he should be left land was indicated the weather map vicinity of a storm centre, is surely affected by many typhoons during the engagement of the lines for such Where height of the do this while navigating in the mosn and" Hainan are crossed or sult in unnecessary repetition, and severely alone, and that is when, would show the height of the in keeping with the finest of the the course of each summer. having stated that the weather will barometer, and where the rivers fine traditions of the, sen.

purposes results in the frequent. improve, and in that firm belief were drewn the weather map would

Danger Signs.

delay of messages of general inter botuking himself to Fanling, he ex-exhibit wind direction. There is

eat, periences with other members of the ass this similarity, that if equal golf club the felicity of watching altitudes are shown in an ordin steady down pour of rain for the ary map by contour lines. the whole of the time that play in normally possible. Is anys much for ay that no casualty has ever been recorded when the prophet has been reminded of his prophecy

!

Typhoons.

anemometers at the

The first effect of a typhoon upon You would probably be dissatis Hong Kong is usually a spell of

An Appeal. ad if I sat down without touching bright and hot weather. As., the upon the subjent of typhoons.

Without unduly stressing these course of the rivers is across these typhoon is the local name for becomes clouded, and a first rough those institutions, etc., which have

A typhoon approaches, the clear sky remarks, I should like to append liars from high to low Two wind tropical cyclone; in the South In approximation of the typhoon track definite rules of procedure when the ' direction arrows, in the synoptic dian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal may be gathered from the sature different signals are hoisted The' chart have a similar tendency it is termed a cyclone, and in the of the clouds. If the track is to individual responsible for the carry- broadly speaking they fly from re- West Indies, a hurricane. The the south of Hong Kong, the ing out of these instructions tries "Shop" is usually regarded as gions of high barometer pressure to passage of a typhoon is at best clouds are detached and move from (probably most innocently) to throw being somewhat outside the pale regions where it is low across the troublesome and uncomfortable N. or N.E., while the visible blue vatory by seeking to obtain infor the responsibility upon the Obser of conversation during hoars of re-lines of equal pressure known as episode, but I have frequently met sky in clear. If the storm is head-mation as to when the signals will laxation from toil. In the weather isobars.

newcomers anxious for the exporting north of Hong Kong, the sky

be raised or lowered in order that prophet spared? Not he. I. "onew Here then you have the essentials ence. Strangely enough, he (cr

he may inteligently anticipate kaew a weather prophet who

more completely. covered, the ovents. This shows praiseworthy of the weather map, barometrishe) usually expects something of clouds move from N. or N.W. and zeal, but is somewhat unfair to my nearly as possible became a hermit. pressure, wind direction and force the dramatic rature recorded in are less sharply defined owing to

staff and myself. from as many stations as can be the writings of those novelists who haze. The temperature is higher obtained. These are plotted upon deal with the romantic isles of the than in the former case.

He laboured amongst you and but few knew him, although his name was a houshold word, and was on one occasion used in a topical vera of a comie song. He, had to make a voyage to Eong Kong un the ferry and in doing so met one of bis few acquaintances and remark- ed upon the fine premises the Go down Co. had recently erected. Ho was really staggered to and that the said premises had been com pleted for six years.

The Methods Employed.

a blank map, isobars are drawn South Pacific Ocean. The aumumry and from the shape that the isobars way disaster strikes these island assume, deductions are made and communities makes a great appout weather forecasts issued.

3

gone ashore.

aro

much inconvenience and loss of Storm warnings are the cause of

valuable time in the commercial activities of this port, but they premium against possible disasters, should be regarded as an insurance and accepted as cheerfully as pos

sible.

on. Mr. W. E. L. Shenton, who half of fellow Rotarians by the The speaker was thanked' on be.

south of the Colony, the wind veers During the passage of a typhoon from North through. East to South; to the imagination, but during the during a passage to the North of Cyclone and Anti-Cyclone.

passage of the majority of typhoons, the Colony the wind backs from

QUESTIONS AND THANKS. Beane conformations of isobare lacks the dramatic character beicvful, in the latter, the rainfall, a Retarian M. F. Key asked the

the sequence of weather changes North through West to South, In the former onze rainfall is plenti

At the conclusion of the address represent the regions of low presod of the South Sea novelist. though plentiful, is sometimes not

are in which the winds converge

speaker: How long is the rain in a rough sort of spiral towards It was unfortunately true, experienced until the typhoon has the centre. These are cyclones: however, that dramatic and tragic changes in

In both cases the going a lasti wind direction

Mr. Jeffries: Instead of sewer- those occuring in the tropics being consequences are not unknown Eere,quicker, the nearer the centre or

ing questions I am going to ask known ne tropical cyclones, and but usually the sum total of the the typhoon passes to the Colony, Public Works require an abnormal one: does the" Hon. Director of those of more temperate regiong as

and in the rare cases when the A little insight into the methods extra tropical cyclones. While ench average citizen's experience is dis- typhoon passos directly over the supply of rain to give us a normal

has certain characteristics the two comfort. employed may interest you, and 1 varieties are generally similar fal expansion of Kowloon during direction is discerned, the wind did not reply.

In spite of the wonder Colony-no gradual change of wind supply of water. (Loud laughter). Rotarian the Hon. H. T. Crossy hereby promise not to be profound the main features of cyclonic cir ly scientific. Firstly I should like term anticyclone is given to areas remains the business centrs of the ly from the opposite direction as oulation, and in corpoquentee the recent years, thie City of Victoria approaches, rocommonning sudden ceasing abruptly as the central calın to allude to a method that is not of high pressure in the earth's at Colony, and a large number of the the central colt passes. used and in doing so I may per mospliers where the winds show a

anid that it was well to reflect that haps be forgiveni un ancedote. A circulation of a contrary nature. Colony's-workers-ure-faced-with un-

-if-wo-had-ao-weather-ills at Hong distinguished scientist, was at one

comfortable or interrupted trans

Kong we should not have had that Where Error Aribes.

The damage done by the storm intereating address. As a boy he had time travelling in Australia whon

port, while the high wind and heavy depends on In addition to the two main dis

the velocity of the often wondered what The Clerk of he heard of a farmer in the back-tributions of pressure exemplified rainfall of a typhoon continue wind combined with the heavy rain the Weather was like, but be had blocks who had achieved a reputa by the cyclone and anticyclone, are For those who have not necessarily the weak points of buildings, caus- finely upstanding a person as the The combination invariably finds never imagined so handsome and tion as a weather prophet at the forms known 我好 wedges, cols, to fare abroad the house. becomes ing. breakage and leaks and is offcial who performed that func time that an official meteorological troughs and socondaries The Ta service was showing much activity, tor are usually subsidiary on the something of a prison, all windows expecially fatal to trees, the roots tion in Hong Kong. (Hear, hear!! The scientist called upon the old weather map to the cyclone and and shutters are bolted and barred into the earth. Falling trees and

of which do not penetrate deeply He had wondered if the speaker man and questioned him as to his anticyclone, but each has distinc- but nevertheless permit quantities flying debris cause havoc with over the economic blizzard, or on those were going to enlighten them on methods and to his surprise was tive weather characterística. To told I onrefully read what that construct a weather map in great of water to enter through previous phones, etc. These services are now value should be about two shillings head wires for electric light, tele clouds with silver lining whom man in Sydney says and then say detail requires a large number of ly unsuspected cracks, leaks appear mainly carried underground, and but ward now somewhere about one the opposite." It is not quite simultaneous observations and in in roofs and servants are kept busy interruption is rare, whatever the and three With regard to typ. impina tant, huz in may give the Far East these are not avail with swabs and buckets In former severity of the storm. As the wind hoona in spite of their interest to hint to any rotarian who would abin. The weather maps therefore times the electric light frequently force increases, the waters of the the Observatory and their value to like to add forsenating to his ae-loan only exhibit the broad featuror failed, adding another discomfort harbour ars lashed into foun, and D.P.W most of us falt that we complishments.

of pressure distribution, and it is to the lot of the prisoner.

much water is onst up on the dif (Vontinued on Pays a)

~~Damage:"

"

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