1928-03-15 — Page 2

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THE POPULATION OF CHINA

REASONS FOR THINKING IT IS INCREASING.

RESULTS OF RECENT INQUIRIES."

WILL DOUBLE IN 70 YEARS?

Writing in the Chincee Economic Journal on the subject of the composition and growth of rural population groups in China Messrs C. M. Chino and J. Lossing Buck of the University of Nanking come to the conclusion that China's population is in- crensing quite rapidly and at the present rate would double. every 10 years.

The authors state :— There are various opinions on the

Growth Of Population. growth of population in China.

The birth rate per 1,000 of the The assumption on the part of population varies from 20.3 in most Westerners living in the coun Chenghaies, Honan, to 70.3 at try as well as of Chiness of the Sahsien (B), Anhwei, and averages older school is that the population for all regions 9.2 This rate is is increasing more rapidly than nearly as high as that of 2.5 for the means ofaubaistence. The

the Soviet Hepubles (6) in 1923. Chinese student who reads. the High birth rates also obtain in San Mi Chu I believes that other countries such as Egypt, China's population is not increas-41.0; Bulgaria, 400; and Chili, and that China has no problem of The lowest birth rates occur for over-population, at least so long Switzerland, 10.7. The death rate as there are certain unsettled areas per 1,000 of the population ang in the Northwest. Dr. Sun Yat from 6.9 at. Maikaochiao, Kiang- Sen's conclusions are based on the from Coat, feeling formerly so common to all the survey made in Yuenchen peoples that the population of an-Honan, and Polisien, Anwbei, and other race or nation is incrensing averages 27.3 for all regions. more rapidly than one's own Countries having higher death therefore one must advocate' a

rabes than this are Greenland, higher birth rate for fear of ex- 33.6; Chili, 26; and Ceylon, 81,8 tinction'

Japan's death rate is 93.6.

HONG KONG STOCK EXCHANGE.

CLOSING QUOTATIONS-

Marcu 14th, TURE,

1,830 bay. London...£120 Chartered Bank 1 buy Marcantila Bank, A. 8... nom. Do PO,,E14) P. & O. Bank Fast Asia Baat - Canton IngITANJE

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North China Ins,'

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Hong Kong Fire

Fire In.......740 Douglass 42 H.K. Stasz bönta H.K. TO Indo-Chinas (Fra)

Do Shell Transporta Waterboat.... Benguets Kaiinn lining Ad.

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གབ་------སའĄ*

ng and perhaps is even decreasing: 20.7. Japan's birth rate is 34 Baugeliu padaN

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The high death rate of infants in the regions studied is shown by the infant mortality of 120 per 1,000 births and by the proportion ato mortality of infants of 19.6. Countries (0) having the lowest in- fant mortality rates per 1,000 births are New Zealand (1025), 40, Norway (1923), 49; Australia (1925), 63; and Sweden (1993), 33. United Asbestos United States (for the registration Dairy Farms area, 1023) had a rate of 21, and Watsons England and Wales (1025) a rate Der A Wings of 13. Bussia in 1000 had a rate Lane Crawford of 216, while Chile had the highest Hackintoaks. rate of 500, Lapan's rate in 1924 Sincerca was 158. It is this very high in- fant mortality rate in China which in a significant factor in checking the_growth of population.

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Perhaps better on Chiara pont door threat as The average natural rate of en- Leen compiled than that of Rock which is equivalent to an annual hill's (1) Because of famines,natural rate of increase of 1.43 per wara, pestilence, and emigration; it cont. This corresponds to a is quite possible as is contended by doubling of the population in 70 Rockhill, that China's population years. Five other countries have in the eighteen provinces is little higher natural rate of increase if any greater than it was in 1842 than these data show for China Rockhill estimates that since 1842 They are: Bulgaria, 10.6; South such calamities as the Taiping Re Africa, 17.1; Holland, 15.2; Egypt bellion, the Mohammedan up 13.0; and Canada 144. Countries risings and the various severe having a fow natural increase are famines (particularly that of 1878- France 26: Austria, 4.0; Green- 79) reducet China's population by land 5.1;/and, Belgium 6.5. 47,700,000 Chen Chang Heng has computed the rate of increase in population for different periods and this indicates the effect of the positive checks of flood, drought, pestilence and wars an population | (2). China's population increased for the period of 1840-1923 at the rate of doubling in 659 years; for the period of 1500-1923 at the rate of doubling in 216 years, and for the period of 1741-1993 at the rate of doubling in 113 years.

The longer period of 192 years probably indientes more nearly the normal rate of growth than do the other periode

which are temporarily affected by calamities. One should distinguish, therefore, between the normal rate of growth and the ab- normal situations which make for exceptionally high death rates That China's population has not rapidly increased in the last thirty or forty years is stated only by those who have made the most superficial kind of observation. China's recent contact with the West has stimulated development and has probably been one imper. tant factor causing increase (3).

Purpose And Scopa Of The Study,

The purpose of this study is to reveal the actual growth of popula

The fecundity (number of births tion for a single year period in per 1,000 married women between typical rural districts, for it is in the ages of 1341) in the regions the country where at least eight-studied is 235. Countries (8) hav-|-. tenths of the people of the nationing high fecundity rates per 1,000 live. In order to understand this growth more completely, data on red women of 13-49 years of age are: Bulgaria (1910-11), 280; the composition of the patriarchal Ireland (1909-11); 230; and Nether- farm family and analysis of the lande (1003-14), 23. This cou population by age and sex is also parison shows that the regions presented.

studied in China have the highest The areas studied were chosen rate of any country. It is general- because they appeared to be typically assumed that early marriages, and because it was possible to ob such as are common in China, aro tain investigators native to the re conductive to large mumbers of gion. The year studied was a nor

children, mai one. The data comprise 4315 representative farm families chiefly of the patriarchal type, in eleven regions of eight counties of four provincos. The total population of these families is 22,160 persone and the average size of the family is 3.20 individuals. The number of married women between the ages of 15-44 was 3,287.

|

The marriage rate is 13.7 persons per year per 1,000 of the popula- tion. This rate is a little higher than that of 12.8 for the Soviet. Re- publics in 1923, and is much higher than that of 8.3 for Japan in 1996. Other countries having high rates are United States (Registration arcu in 1924), 10.1; Rumania (1993), 9.9; and Belgium (1888), 3.0. Lowest rates occur as follows: Jamaica, (1224) 3.5; Irish Free State (1921), 4.7; Hungary (1924), 5.7; and Norway (1925), 5.9.

EXCHANGE RATES.

[BRITISH WIRELESS AZEVICE}]

Ruany, March 13th:

Paris Brussels Amsterdam Berlin Copenhagen

Vienna

Helsingfors

Lisbon

124

35.

12125

20.41

13.22-

34.845

Bucharest

Buenos Aires......... New York Genera Milan Stockholm Odlo Prague Madrid

193 "23/16

790 47.20/32 4.87.27/32

25.34

32.35

18.175

18.32

154)

29,02%

Athena" Rio

3791

5.59/64

Bombay Yokohama

1/5.31/22

2/61

2/01

26.7/16 931

Shanghai

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It is hoped that these data, even though limited to only a single year period, will contribute original information upon the growth of China's population. - The data confirm the opinion of those who from careful observation and experience have concluded that China's population is increasing. Some of the outward aigns that „Domposition Of The Farm, Family. may be the result of such increase populated regions. A survey of 13-Emigration to less densely The composition of the fare as follower 160 farms in Yenshan County, family by relationship to the male 1-More crowded housing, * Chihli, shows that about thirteen | head⋅ was obtained for eight out 2. The increase in the number

of the eleven regions studied, and of residences with the consequent. Per cent. of the population of the this included 2,99% of the total increase in size of villages and in present generation has migrated 4,216 families. While, the average the mutuber of villages.mber 14.-Increase in bandite, robber,

number of persons per family is 3-The increase in the number beggars and troublemakers. zmall still the members of these of tea houses along the roadside. $10. Then intressed "base" with patriarchal families comprised six A rather liberal translation of a which the landlord can secure generations, two preccting and Chinese proveth illustrates this tenants and the difficulty of the three succeeding that of the head point: Five years of time the tenant to obtain land for farming. of the family. The number of tea bouses are ten miles apart, ten different relatives in great for the years of time they are five

La Conclusion,

whole group of 2,027 families but apart vs The apparent stationery nature is small per individual family.

The increase of fuel gatherers of China population since 1842. The ratio of males to 100 females on the mountain sides.

as da example of the necessity of shows a preponderance of males 5-No shortage of farm labourers using various perioder of time if for each five-year age group up to in spite of emigration to the titics. one is to arrive at accurate cou

clusions on the growth of the population: With the gradual de velopment that has been taking

7-The increase of land values

at a rate more rapid than the in-place in China during the last half

KNOW THE COUNTRY YOU LIVE IN BY VISITING THE CHINA EXHIBITION,

STANDREW'S HALL & GROUNDS, MAR.2811.29:30

20 years, caused probably by less-Emigration of country boys care being given girl balkies, and to cities. In some instances and regions by infanticide of girls. For the age group of 20-24 the ratio is nearly crease in wages. AAS century, with the curtailment of series of years it may be concluded: even and this change is undoubted 8-The decrease in baze of fans the effects of crop Lallures by that China's population shows Ty accounted for by the young men A survey of 150 farms at Yunshan fagmine rehet, and with the stem neb yearly increase as who leave for work in other places County, Chihli Province, shows a ming of plagues, it appears that populations of the world with the The higher ratio for the five year decrease of Ita per cent in the the positive checks have not been exception of certain periods of age groups of 25-38 may possibly size of farms, in a period of 13.4 as effective as formerly. The pre-war flood, drought and pestilence. be accounted for by the high death years (7), sent study indicates that for the Such increase, however, is accom- rate for women infected by tetanus 9-The cultivation of new lands normal year of 1924-25 for the plished with much daman misery during child birth. In the veEY 10-The growing of more inten- eleven regions studied there was and with considerable economic late age groups the ratio is very ave crops.ONIO an increase, which if continued, waste, because of the high birth and 11-Cultivation of crops more would amonot to a doubling of the oath rates China's problem in intensively mod

population in every seventy years addition to mocking an optimum 12 The development of horce. If this is indicative of conditions population density is she one of industries subsidiary to farming throughout the country over producing a population at less cost

(Continued on next Column), "-- (Continued at foot of next column, and with legs human, angul

low because of the higher death Tate for men than women the later years of life The ratio of total males to total females for all groups is 12:

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