1925-10-08 — Page 9

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AUGUST 8TH. AUGUST 29TH."

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The issue of August 8th contains the detailed reply by

A. G. M. to Wu Hon Man's Manifesto. This reply. analyses very fully the various contentions put for ward by the Bolsheviks in their propaganda, and gives the British point of view. It should be kept on record as it will always be useful for reference purposes.

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The issue of August 29th contains the full report of the great indignation meeting held at the Theatre Royal, together with the text of the Telegram sent to the Prime Minister.

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HONGKONG DAILY PRESS, THURSDAY, OCTOBER STH 1925

RESULTS OF THE DAWES PLAN.

YEAR'S WORKING.

GERMAN ESTIMATES.

BERLIN. August mch. The first anniversary of the Twes Phi is the occasian" for a general review inli the German Press of the resulta achieved in the period to July 31st, the returns for the current month not having yet been published. Agrémpts are made to esti mate progress and the outlook for the future.

It is realized that the first year's work- ing cannet by any means be regarded as a test of the Plan. Of the first year's contributions of one thousand million marks £30,000,000], only two hundred million marks £10,000,000] were found directly by Germany--and this by the German railways albue-the balance of eight hundred million marks | C1000,000) | being the proceeds of the Genuan ex- ternal loan. The greater part was trans- ferred by means of deliveries in kind, either through the Reparations Heevery Act or hy netual deliveries, a large port of the proceeds being absorbed by the expenses of the occupation and the ad ministration of occupied territory.

In the course of the year three pul dent agreements were concluded for the smoother. working of the Plan the first on April 3rl, for the régulation of the Reparation Recovery payments, the "second on May 1st for payment on de- liveries in kind, and the third on May 5th for the payment of the costs of the oc- cupation. The year virtually constituted a moratoriim.

What, it is asked, has been the effect of the year's respite on kierman ecotomie life, and what is the outlook for the Plan in the second year, when Germany really begira, the serious work of making payments?

SENSE OF SECURITY.

On the positive side most of the sur- veys give pride of place to the undoubted gain in the feeling of security that has sance pervaded the internal and external commercial and political relations of Germany. Undoubtedly the transfer of so explosive a matter as the problem of reparations from the political to the economic plane has fully justified the hopes of those who saw in this step the only possible method of pacifying Europe, The control of the Keichsbank under the terms of the scheme has made the stabilization of the currency secure. There is still a good deal of fear among! | the_uneducated that a new inflation is not impossible, and even imminent, From time to time "a smull panic is noticeable among wage earners and "small traders, though it is not enough affect the general confidener and merely retarda saving. The most impressive feature in the Reichsbank's management under the era of Dr. Schacht is the increase in the gold reserve and holding of foreign ex change as cover for the note virenlation. It is asked whether the present scale" is not too, lavish and whether it might not be possible after all for the Reichsbank to increase the circulation beyond the prosent needs of the country, which would i he in effect a new inflation. The danger seems rather remote.

Hardly Tess important is the influence the Plan has had on Gernian economic life in opening the foreign credit market to German trade. Working capital had practically disappeared in the last stages of the inflation, when the unly safe plan for the industrialist or trader was to tur every penny of into bricks and mortar or into plant and stock; Thenceforward till the adoption of the Dawes scheme, the great problem of Germany was how to liquefy capital thus locked up and bow to finance this fine equipment for pro- duction,

· THE PRESENT CRISIS.

The crisis through which Germany is going at the present time is practically unrelated to the Dawes Plan Indirectly the increase in taxation may have con tributed to it, together with the tariff and the attendant rise in prices.

But this is largely a crisis of markets, and, though, the trough of the wave has not been reached, competent judges consider that there will be an upward trend before next spring. The next year's pay. ments under the Dawes Plan do not ins clude any revenue from taxation, and femu that point of view the Budget of the last year is of interest only because it has shown that the sources of taxation earmarked for the controlled revenues are. yielding amounts very considerably in excess of the arms contemplated in the third year of the scheme, when budgetary contributions will be made for the first time.

The bulk of the next year's payments is to be derived from the revenues of the railway company and from the issue of railway preferential ehares to the amount of 250 million marks [212,500,000). Only 195 million marks (£8,250,000] of the whole Stim of 1,020 million marks (£61,000,000] for the second year in to be derived from other sources namely, the industrial debentures.

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A TEK-TO-TUM CAR,

It is said that a Swedish engineer,

The general director of the German: Railways and former Minister of Com-its heritage of plant, rolling stock, and opinion still is that there in only one lost markets are only slowly reconquercił munications, Herr Orser, in a statement buildinga from the State in very poor("method" of transferring payments, and and reopened. It is a feature of all Ger on the Snances of the railways, has ex-condition, and it has not succeeded in that is by the export of German goods, man surveys of the prospects of future pressed his willingness to do his utmost creating the reserves which are casential The only difference of opinion is as to Daven years that none comes may nearer. to ensure the falliment of the obligations to an undertaking of its size, while it has the amount by which the exports must to solving the transfer problem than tha laid upon the railways, which he regards now to take on two beavỳ items of ex- exceed the importe, and, in general, Pro members of the Dawes Committee dif ag vital to the present situation of Ger- penditure, improvements in safety signal fessor Cassel's estimate is accepted. It themselves. Times Correspondent, many. This is a handsome admission, ling and electric light in the trains. cannot be denied that it has been a great since it is well known that Herr Deser

disappointment to German economists RAILWAY FREIGHTS. has from the first held the view that the

that the increase in exports has not pro- railways are not in the long run finan- The railway company is, however, duced-or even begun to produce the cially capable of carrying the burden the likely to encounter andmer class of dis surplus necessary to make this part of Dawes Plan has imposed upon them.pute in the near future, and, that is, the the scheme elective in sing quanti has invented a car that will not only

Even were the Lately there has been demand for question of freights. Although the rail goods to he produced higher wages among the railway men, and ways have censed to be State property, ties, it is realized that markets could not move backwards and forwards, but als it is not yet settled. Tant the workanen German public opinion still retains the be found for them, and though the newly laterally. In view of the glassy marinos have a good case, in view of the present impression that, although the system hat negotiated commercial agreements proof many of our ronds, motorists will high cost of living is hardly in dispute. to herui-18 laid down in the Dawes mised some improvement, the world, in hardly consider this i novelty, - SATIS But Herr Oeter refuter their claim that Pim on ordinary business lines, it is not thirsting for a flood of German matin Contac♬ in The Alotor. Ií a vehicle the railways can pay it out of the monthly still the servant of German trade, and factures. High tariffs still confront the of this type catches on, however, a nar surplus of 70,000,000 marks [23,500,000), mást so adjust its rates and freights re... German exporter, and they are not terror for drivers can be foreseen, Just, which is arrived at merely by placing the gardless of any obligation to earn a pro- | brought any lower by the aggressive imagine how difficult it would be to keep receipts against expenditure and allowing fit. Its refusal to do so is constantly the trade policy of the present German ada straight cours on a slipperie, ronch nothing for reserves and maintenance object of attack

ministration, The newer nations have while operating a vehicle that can be The railway company, he eV, received (Continued on xezi Column).!

During

the next year, also, the problem their own industries to foster, the older manoured towards every cardinal point of transfer will become, reil German ones fight to hold what they have, and on the compan