1915-03-05 — Page 7

ECONOMIC

STRANGULATION sterling a year. Here again there is no possible compensation for the loss of

OF GERMANY.

PROPHETIC ADDRESS BY A

GERMAN,

materials.

THE MACHINE, INDUSTRY, Wo may now mention the German busi ness of machine construction, which, with 20,000 factories and 900,000 workmen, AN ECONOMICAL WAR WILL THROW US DOWN gives, of itself, to Gormar exportation

25 millions pounds sterling.

ON OUR KNEES,

OTHER INDUSTRIES.

The industry of chemicals, the work on A speech delivered on May 11th, 1912, iron, on food and drink, on rubber, les by Herr E. Possehl (wholesale trades-ther and paper; on stone and earthenware, on wood and carved products, and many man of Lubeck) at the first meeting of others, give an occupation to crowds of the General Direction of the Deutscher people, each for its own part to hundreds Werkvereen in Berlin (Professors' Union) of thousands of workmen, and thus they has recently been translated and pub contribute to a very large extent in making the economical prosperity of the lished in Bordeaux, Publication Garman people. Now, none of the great of the address at the time German industries can exist, except by delivered WHE not permitted, and through the eco-trade, either for for obvious reasons, but at this date exportation or importation, and in most when the conjectural state of affairs

enses for both. which formed the 'ecturer's premises have actually come to pass, the publica tion of the address (which has apparently surreptitiously acquired) is useful is affording a clear, and comprehensive view of the situation which a blockade of Germany is producing. Herr Posschl said:

In the autumn of last year, when the discussions on the Morocco affair were shodding, as it were, lightning-flashes of intense light on the political situation, 1, as a German as well as a Hanseatic trades man, wondered from which direction would come the greatest peril threatening

SEVERAL MILLIONS OF MEN TAKEN FROM INDUSTRY AND TRADE, Altogether, we reach this year in the German Empire the figure of 300,000 three hundred thousand) factories and industrial firms in full work (in 1912, 190,000 factories) with 03 millions of work men, a quarter of this number consisting of young men and women, ..

Then there is the trade, business and building industry, occupying millions of workmen. Agriculture occupice altoge ther 7 million bands, out of whom 60 per cent, are women, A great war, into which Germany might be drawn, would call under the colours one million of work men from our industry, besides two millions of other soldiers of all trades

ecuntry.

since Germany now boasts having more than [These figures are far below the truth, 4 millions of men in arms.

THE HONGKONG DAILY PRESS, FRIDAY, MARCH 5TH, 1915

twenty five years ago, we were Indebted to importation only for 6 per cent, instead of the 16 per cent, of last year.

WE STAND IN A CRITICAL SITUATION. The population and the consumption per head have increased, without any corresponding increase of the agricultural production. Now, in case of war, we stand in a critical situation. Suppose the war breaking out in the Spring two or three months before the harvesting season. The whole western side of the empire, as closed to the transport of corn; Austria well as the shore of the North Bea are Hungary has nothing to spare for exportation; all that remains are the grain coming from Russia or from the orth States of the Balkans, or by the indirect, very expensive way perhaps Triesto in the Mediterranean, or vid even closed by England, vid Genoa and Genoa and Triesto in the Mediterranean, vid some ports on the Swedish or Danish shores of the Baltic.

ENGLAND MUST BLOCKADE THE PORTS OF

HOLLAND.

I give up at once the idea of Dutch ports, because England would renounce her own power if she respected their neutrality. A third part of Gorman importation and exportation by sen is carried on through Dutch and Belgian ports. Suppose now Russia, as the ally of England, forbade the exportation of corn to Germany; this may be in some cases the most powerful means of attack she could direct against us. It goes then without saying that com would rise to famine prices; 16 per cent, of the im- portation being, comparatively, either directly or indirectly for the feeding of cattle, the necessary food to 10 millions of

auch an amount of reserves; then

TWO MILLIARDS OF FOOD IMPORTS INTO GERMANY.

The supplying of necessary food to the German nation in a state of war is of such capital importance that it is our supreme duty to look at that question in the face. In fact, according to statistics, the im portation of articles of food and drink may be valued at two milliards a year, everything included corn, meat, colonial produce, preserves, fruit, wine, tobacco, and so on.

-THE QUESTION OF

OF FINANCES.

I have still few words to say on the financial question. It is a chapter, por- haps the most important of all, which can be examined only if one can give it a long time. I cannot do so to-day. What on our need of money in case of war. The I waut especially to do is to enlighten you money necessary to a fully mobilized army

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of 3 million men and to the fleet has been valued by experts at £350,000,000 a year. () To that sum we must add the money. necessary for the help of workmen without broad in industry, trade and business. In the case of an English blockade, I think that, without counting the men mobilized, we shall not go far wrong in saying that there will be in the Empire from 6 to 8 millions of paupers This may seem an extraordinary figure, but it will not be far from the truth. If we count 50 pfennigs per head per day, we shall require other enormous sums of money to support our population. Of cOLED, the Empire, the State, the local authori ties, the private help organized under the control of the Central Financial Institute of the Imperial Bank must and will do their best to ameliorate the situation. Many MARSEILLES AND LONDON of us are thinking about our economical completely during the last 42 years. From an agrarian nation, we have become now an industrial and commercial State. In this respect, France has remained behind, not only because of her small numbers of births, but also because of her special agrarian character. Moreover, she has the advantage of us in case of war, through her ports not being blockaded But there the utmost the patriotism, the devotion is not the least doubt that she will tax to and the intellectual powers of the German THE TAIKOO people

us in case of war: whether from England, and professions, in town and in the Germans. In the country we cannot keep situation in 1870-71, but it has changed because of a war waged essentially against out trade and industry, or from France, because of a political war. Allow me fitat to tell you that I served as a soldier throughout the campaign of 70-71, from the first day to the last, in the Rhine Corps; it was like the anointment of my youth; but then, with many of my fellow citizens, wo were able to accertain several saddening facts abonte our situation towards the other countries,

AN ECONOMICAL WAR

Well! I have become persuaded that the eronomical war, oruelly, national, which England will wage against us on the sea, much more than a purely political war wazed against France on land, will have for Germany the watab consequences and throw us down on our knees

As I happened to talk on that subject with General Keim, the chairman of our association, he advised me to study the economical questions relating to a state of war, which can no longer be divided from the military ones. It is my purpose in addressing you now, and I intend to deal with those questions from the mere point of view of practical life. But while complying with our chairman's wishos; I have declared to him that this address will in no way be pitblished by the Press, because the weak sides of Ger- many aro examined as well as the others And this is what I wish also to lay clearly

WORKMENNIN

Cattle-breading requires huge quantities of foreign fodder, in the shape of bran, residues from oil-mills, flour-mills, breweries, distilleries, and also corn used as fodder The number of the 10th of March of this year's Fog tells as Ger man agriculture needs one milliard of agriculture can supply ont need of cattle fodder yearly: Fortunately, Gorman for the butchery, but only on condition that the importation of foreign fodder should take place without hindrance.

THE BLOCKADE: NO MORE BREAD FOR OUR-

A blockade of the ports, from the Low Countries to the Baltic Sea, would result in the momentary stoppage of the greatest part of that mighty industry. I am fully convinced that, if a long war with block ade of the sea-shore wore to happen, a third of our factory workmen, per haps even more, would be in want of bread, even if agriculture might for a time employ many workmen from the towns to There is only the great German polate take the place of country labourers, called culture, which may be compensation for into the army, cren, besides, if the output us, in the worst of events, and even then of some industries is intensified by the a drought, as in 1911, or a continuous needs of the army: there will be still damp season may deprive us of this help without any employment about one million of workmen belonging to industry (building-industry include) and trade. which is indeed a very important figure

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plicated economical situation, I must say When I think of that extremely com

TAIKOO DOCKYARD. HONGKONG. that the permanent institution of an SHIP BUILDERS SALVORS AND REPAIRERS, BOILERMAKERS, Economical General Staff seems to me as needful as that of a military one. This

BRASS AND IRON FOUNDERS, CONSTRUCTIONAL, Let us suppose, however, that Russia trade and nuance, perhaps under the WELDING AND CUTTING OF METALS BY OXY-ACETYLENE

new General Staff ought to be composed a

ELECTRICAL AND MECHANICAL ENGINEERS, of the beat representatives of our industry, will preserve towards Germany a reutral direction of the Foreign Office. Such an attitude, so that trade may be continued mereial interest and a question of life use fry in two meal racers either way; even then, it will be our com- authoritative body might be efficiently and death to keep the Baltic Sea clear of of all kinds, because of knowledge of those us from committing economical blunders foreign hostile ships. The large warships questions it would have acquired can enter the Baltic Sea only by the Great knowledge which is far from being sufici- Belt, as the Little Bolt and the Soundently spread among the public. are not deep enough for Dreadnoughts. The canal between the North Soe and the widening is now going on, but it will not Baltic is sufficient, and fortunately, its he ready before the end of 1914. If the German feet succeeds in keeping the ports and eren Hamburg will remain Baltic Sea clear, all the German Baltic open, and Russia will send us our supplies

16 is as plain as 2 and 2 make 4 that our sen-traffic (1911: 3,000,000 tons net, out of which 50 per cent, of steamers; 1871 1,000,000 tons net, out of which per cent, steamers) with such an unfavour ahla situation, strategically speaking, without sufficient cables, without coating out the world, will be amongst the Brst stations or naval bases, scattered through things to disappear. In my own business, Towards the end of last November, the great number of steamers are trans head of a arm of blast furnaces on out the Gerraan flag and sail through the porting my iron-ore. Since they Ay Baltic coast, came into my office and Baltic Sea, through the North Sea

a possible war, which was then everybody's topic of (starting from Narvik in the north of of corn and, fodder. USA WIP

before you.

UNEMPLOYMENT.

broached at once the subject of

conversation. On my asking him, he answered:Out of my workmen and clerks, from 600 to 700 in number, there will be about 200 called into the army With the 400 to 500 remaining, comprising several technicians, I may keep up half of the business for a month or six weeks at the most. Then, in the case of an English blockade, there would be no longer either ere or coals, and I should have to cease all work. This means that about 1,200 people, women and children; included, and 1,600, if we include the wives and children of the ten called to arms, will be without means of living.

Here, work cannot help sufficiently, since it can maintain itself only with the most strenuous efforts. The situation is the same for several tens, even hundreds of thousands of factories in the German Empire. Their outlet within the country is momentarily stopped; towards foreign markols by sea, it is stopped altogether In the same way, the importation of raw products for our industry will also be stopped and cut short. There is nothing fike figures to enable us to study accurately that very important economical question. I will ground my conclusions on statisties, mostly from official sources, and, lacking thoce, on careful calculations.

THE PAUCITY OF MEANS OF TRANSPORT.

ECONOMICAL QUESTIONS ARE FULLY AS

IMPORTANT AS MILITARY QUESTIONS

As a conclusion, gentlemen, I think you all will agree that those economical ques tions have such a huge influence on the to the level of military questions. Both fate of our people that they rise fully up are intimately connected and cannot be any longer considered separately in their Consequences,

bottes) I must always expect them to be Norway and Luleå in the Swedish Nor captured, especially in the North Sea, by

It is the more important to utilise UNEXPECTED CONCLUSIONS. rome English rapid cruisers; they will navigation that we cannot foresee whence even go and throw themselves into the net. would come And the situation will be exactly the same carriages. Already in Autumn we are in the necessary railway for most of the other German steamers need of railway carriages or vans How which might be unable to take refuge in could we then transport our huge amount austral port. In case of war, German of goods mto foreign countries, if the war navigation and sea-trade are dead. department takes for a long time all the we must be in mind that in 1911, the ports towards the West 7

To realize fully the meaning of all this, available carriages for the military trans

Gorman

milliards, the export-trade 3.1 milliards,

import trade reached 0.7 AX THE EXPERIENCE OF THE PAST merely for the tratar of goods (England listed the news that the closing of the

Only a few days ago, the Press pub

France in 1011: 11.4 millions of marks) our supplies of corn and fodder. The in 1011: 21 milliards of marks in all Dardanelles had a very bad influence on Out of these 18. milliards;-5 cross land frontiers, the 13 others cross the seas

our article was as follows - and aro therefore at the mercy of Eng-The land's maritime power. Never before has and sea-power had such an important moaning for the economical life of nations, and the importance of that power does nothing but increase every year, owing to the nature of modern commercial intercourse between nations. ⠀⠀⠀

THE COMMANDING GEOGRAPHICAL SITUATION

OF ENGLAND. We must add to this the geographical situation of England in the world, at the IRON AND STEEL INDURTAJES

end of the Channel; her situation is quite We have, first, our own industries, those as good opposite the North Sea, whereas of iron and steel with 100,000 workmen in the North Sea and can make us for Germany has quite a secondary position besides the colliers, 700,000 in number, of that deficiency only in the Baltic Ses, which I may speak with full personal which plays an unimportant part in the knowledge. They require even now, trade of the world.k raw material imported from foreign countries, more than 12 million tons of "are" from Sweden, Spain, France, the Mediterranean and Southern Russia with Black Sea The working of the mines of German ore cannot make up for the loss of these. Our richest ore-mines are in what is called the Minette" district in Luxembourg and in Gorman Lorraine.

AGRICULTURE.

The questions examined till now, con- cerning only industry and our commercial navy, are indeed very important in time of war. But agriculture suggests many ofher questions worth examining.

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No sacrifice can be great enough +3 military security. Germany can make maintain our economical as well as our them if she ilus We must again intro- duce Scharnhorst's principle of universal military service. It is not fitting that, after the enforcement of the latest parlia mentary bill, as many, as 70,000 men (4 number rising, besides, by 10,000 men yearly) should remain every year fro of war, a great number of aged and from military service, and that, in case TELEPHONE NO. 212.

when many unpracticed young soldiers married men should be called to the front

may stay at home. We must at any price. keep up our independence; it is the cheapet insurance premium which we life. And the German nation is willing may pay for ourselves and our economical to pay everything needful towards that end. We want all our children, for our country's sake, to undergo, either in the army or the fleet, a training which will strengthen both souls.eir bodies and their

What a young soldier of our great TJIKINI Frederick, what the small, poor, ruined Prussia of 1808 and 1815 has been able to JILIWONG do, the German Empire, the German nation are ready to do likewies May IJITABOEM men in the right places. qk, some favourable fato give them the right

TJIPANAS In other words, let every man, every pfennig be offered up to the German army IBODAR... and to the German fleet for the mainten ance of our economical and political situation. Then, all our neighbours will the France militaire I hardly dare to keep quict and we shall no longer read in repeat the words that the Germans are bluffera.

Manheim, April 10th,. 1912. Blockade of the Dardanelles direction of the Exchange of the

the German ern trade The Products of Manheim cent to day the following request to the Foreign Offica By the closing of the Dardanelles, the economical interests of the German trade are very seriously threatened. Our supply in, corn and grain is not sufficient, our depending on foreign importation at this moment when prices are rising and when the political situation is doubtful, is a very important matter. We have to fear great injury to all our interests if the supplying of grain in Germany must through the blockade of the Dardanelles, depend more than ever on the arbitrary will of a few export merchants, and we beg you most earnestly to take the neces sary protective steps to stop that national

of Corn Merchants of the Hamburg Ex Hamburg, April 21st, 1912-The Union change sent to day to the Chancellor the following telegram: Through the con tinuous want of cereals and fodder, especially herley, very important economi cal and commercial interests are injured by the bekade of the Dardanelles. A disastrous situation will arise if the clos ing is continued for a long time. You are earnestly begged to take steps for the prompt re-opening of the Dardanolles » of tons. The importation, that is to say the Secretary of State Von Kiderlon the brutality of the Gorman as a coloniser Belin, April 22nd, 3912-Answer from Another of the innumerable stories of the difference between the auiounts in ported and exported, reached nearly Waechter to the Hanseatic Union (Hansa is told in a letter from a young officer millions of tons, e, about 16 per cent bund) through which the Manheim who has lately been doing good work in of German consumption. During the telegram was sent to the Foreign Ofice the Bismarck Archipelago. The letter has succeeded in increasing greatly its the blockade of the Dardanelles, I inform Telegraph of January 27th, tells how a Last twenty-five years, German agriculture. In answer to your telegram referring to which appears in the London Daily production; we must acknowledge it and you that Germany, as a neutral Power, German doctor, magistrate, and three praise the German agrarian policy for it cannot interfere in a war between two other others, suspecting (quite falsely) a local The production was 18 million tons in

Powers. Yet the German Government English Wesleyan missionary of giving 1895-26 and 25 millions in 1910-11. But will consider it a duty to act as the situa the presence of his wife and the mission information," brutally thrashed him in tion requires, for the protection of Ger- staff. The writer of the letter describes man interess volumes. Yet, it is mere child's play note appended to the letter gives the good I think that this little disorder, speaks group of apostles of "Kultur," and a his efforts to capture this particular little

compared to a strict blockade or the news that they have since been caught and so-called extensive blockade of our ports publicly thrashed." on the Baltic and the North Sea and of these bullying rufiane have by this time A good many of the ports of the Netherlands.

learned what a long arm England has

CEREALS

The consumption of corn of all kinds

Consequently, the situation I described rose, in 1910-1011, according to Dade, the just now about the work of blast furnaces General Becretary of the German Board on the shore applies likewise to the great of Agriculture, from the month of Febru metal-industry in the Rhine country, Westphalia and Silesia: the raw materialary of that year (without including the is lacking, and therefore the work must mount required for sowing) to 20 millions be stopped.

Now the cutting off of the exportation of our industrial products exportation which, in the Rhine a Westphalia metal industry, concerns half the total production, sets exactly in the s way in the case of an English

blockade of the sea

TEXTILE INDUSTRY Then, there comes the great German textile industry (18,000 factories with 900,000 hands, women iroluded, which imports huge amounts of cotton, wool. raw silk, silk materials and thread, most there results that in 1910-1911 there has (*) From a verification of Dade's figure of them raw materials from over the sea, been about 20 per cent, of extra importation in order to export them as manufactured We shall take no account of this new fact produce. The total value of imports and in our conclusions, because it has happened exports is nearly 120 million pounds cocidentally and only for one year.

(Those figures are far below the truth.

According to German newspapers the wat pouses ard now more than £40,000,000 a

mouth;

TJILATJAP

JIMANOEK

TJIE MBANG

EXPECTED

130

FROM

ON OR ABOUT:

ON OE ABOUT

JAPAN

SHANGHAI

JAVA

JAPAN

JAVA

First half of Adar, First half of Mar. First half of Mar. First half of Ver Becond half of

far

JAYA

Second half of ∙Mar.

JAVA

Besend half of Apr

JAVA

Recond half of

JAPAN

·JAVA

SHANGHAI:

JAVA

SHANGHAI

JAPAN

JAPAN

SHANGHAI

First half of

First half of Mar First half of Mar, Fecond ball of

Second half of

Becond half of

Second half of

Apr

Second half of

Apr

Apr.

The Steamers are all fitted throughout with Eetris Light and have accommodation for limited number of Saloon Passengers, All steamera carry a duly qualified surgeon. Cargo taken at through rates to all porta in Netherlands India and Australia.”.

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T&

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