XN000022-1995-11-24 — Page 14

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The forecast growth rate in real terms of imports of goods in 1995 is revised upwards from 13.7% to 14.9%.

This has incorporated the actual growth of about 16% in the first nine months of the year, but has also given regard to the decelerating trend in retained imports of consumer goods in face of the weak consumer demand.

Also, the growth in retained imports of raw materials can be expected to slow down somewhat, against the substantial build-up of inventories so far.

Having regard to the continued growth in demand for various services related to imports of goods as well as for outbound travel, imports of services are forecast to grow by 9% in real terms in 1995, same as the earlier forecast.

In the domestic sector, the forecast growth rate in real terms of private consumption expenditure in 1995 is adjusted further downwards, from 3.5% to 1.5%.

This is mainly in recognition of the weak spending particularly on higher-value items such as motor vehicles and other consumer durables, which offset considerably the increase in spending on non-durable goods and service items.

Amidst the prevailing subdued consumer sentiment, the growth rate of private consumption expenditure this year is likely to be significantly slower than that of GDP.

Taking into account the level of spending so far this year, the forecast growth rate in real terms of government consumption expenditure in 1995 is revised slightly downwards, from 4.5% to 4%.

On investment spending, for all components combined, gross domestic fixed capital formation is forecast to grow by 11.0% in real terms in 1995, marginally higher than the earlier forecast of 10.9%.

Analysed by main component, the forecast of private sector expenditure on building and construction is lowered further, from a 1.5% increase to a 5% decline in real terms.

This has incorporated the marked slow-down in private sector building and civil engineering works in the second quarter.