XN000022-1995-08-14 — Page 4

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Business prospects for the second half of 1995

Manufacturers generally expect a mild increase in volume of orders in the second half of 1995 over the same period in 1994, according to the results of a recent Half-yearly Business Prospects Survey released today (Monday) by the Census and Statistics Department.

For individual manufacturing industries, manufacturers in the electronic and electrical products and electrical machinery industries expect a considerable increase in volume of orders, while manufacturers in the printing industry expect a moderate increase.

On the other hand, manufacturers in the wearing apparel industry and the fabricated metal products industry anticipate a fairly stable volume of orders while those in the textiles industry foresee a mild decrease.

In general, manufacturers expect capacity utilisation to remain stable in the second half of 1995 compared with the first half. Profit margins, however, are foreseen to be lower in the second half of 1995 compared with the same period a year ago.

Exporters expect a moderate increase in both the values of domestic exports and re-exports in the second half of 1995 compared with the same period last year. Bankers generally hold slightly more optimistic views, with the expectation that total exports will improve fairly considerably in the second half of 1995.

Looking ahead, construction firms generally expect a moderate increase in the volume of construction output in the second half of 1995 compared with the same period in 1994.

The Half-yearly Business Prospects Survey is held on a half-yearly basis, covering about 300 firms from major manufacturing industries, the import/export trades, the banking industry and the construction sector. It collects views of firms on the short-term prospects of the various major business sectors covered and aims at providing a quick reference, with a minimum time lag, for assessing the short-term future economic performance of Hong Kong.

A spokesman of the department pointed out that in a survey of this nature, the results should be interpreted with caution as it is difficult to establish precisely the extent to which respondents' perception of the future accords with the underlying trends.