XN000022-1994-11-25 — Page 8

6

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 25, 1994

ROBUST GROWTH AS

THE EFFECT

TO

TERMS IN THE EXTERNAL SECTOR, THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE IN REAL

THE GROWTH RATE OF RE- OF RE-EXPORTS IN 1994 IS MAINTAINED AT 15%.

IN REAL EXPORTS IN THE FIRST NINE MONTHS OF THE YEAR WAS ABOUT 14%

THUS TERMS. THE FORECAST

SIMILAR OR IMPLIES A

SLIGHTLY BETTER RE-EXPORTS TO CHINA ARE LIKELY TO PERFORMANCE IN THE FOURTH QUARTER. MAINTAIN

OF THE

RESTRAINT ECONOMIC A STRONGER U.S. IMPORT MEASURES IN CHINA IS GRADUALLY BEING ABSORBED.

TO THE U.S. MARKET. HELP RE-EXPORTS DEMAND

CONTINUE SHOULD MEANWHILE, THE STRENGTHENING OF THE CURRENCIES OF SEVERAL EAST ECONOMIES

THE HONG KONG DOLLAR IN RECENT AGAINST GIVING HONG KONG'S EXPORTS A GREATER RELATIVE PRICE SHOULD ALSO UNDERPIN THE GROWTH IN EXPORTS TO MARKETS.

ASIAN THEREBY

QUARTERS,

THE

MAJOR OVERSEAS

COMPETITIVENESS,

REAL DOMESTIC EXPORTS ARE LIKELY TO YIELD A SMALLER DECLINE IN

THE FORECAST RATE OF TERMS THAN EARLIER EXPECTED FOR 1994 AS A WHOLE.

DOMESTIC EXPORTS SHOWED CLEAR DECLINE IS THUS ADJUSTED FROM 4% TO 2%. SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT IN RECENT MONTHS. THE EXCHANGE RATE AND DEMAND THE ORDERS POSITION AND FACTORS SHOULD HELP TO SUSTAIN THIS TREND.

AS FORWARD RETAINED IMPORTS OF RAW MATERIALS AND SEMI-MANUFACTURES INDICATORS ALSO SUGGEST IMPROVEMENT IN THE COMING MONTHS.

TAKING

RE-EXPORTS

AND DOMESTIC EXPORTS TOGETHER, RATE IN REAL TERMS OF TOTAL EXPORTS IN 1994 IS FORECAST AT

THE 11.4%.

GROWTH

IN 1994.

THE FIRST FOURTH QUARTER IS ENVISAGED FOR RETAINED IN THE

IMPORTS ARE FORECAST TO GROW BY 14.7% IN REAL TERMS FOLLOWING A MARKED INCREASE OF ABOUT 13% IN REAL TERMS IN NINE MONTHS, A FURTHER PICK-UP IN GROWTH IN THE EXPECTED. IN ADDITION TO THE CONTINUED ROBUST GROWTH

WHICH RE-EXPORTS

UNDERPINS

IMPORT THE FORECAST

GROWTH, IMPORTS ARE LIKELY TO FOLLOW THE STRONG UPTREND ESTABLISHED PAST TWO QUARTERS.

BOTH EXPORTS AND IMPORTS OF SERVICES ARE FORECAST TO GROW BY 7% FORECAST GROWTH IN REAL TERMS IN 1994, AS COMPARED TO THEIR EARLIER RATES OF 9% AND 8%. THIS ADJUSTMENT HAS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT THE SLOWER

BUT QUARTER. EXPANSION IN TOURISM SINCE THE SECOND SERVICES AND OTHER EXTERNALLY ORIENTED SERVICES SHOULD CONTINUE TO UNDERPIN THE TRADE.

TRADE-RELATED PROFESSIONAL AND SUPPORT

OF PERFORMANCE

INVISIBLE

TERMS

AT 7%,

AT

FIRST LATTER

IN THE DOMESTIC SECTOR, THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE IN REAL OF PRIVATE CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE IN 1994 IS KEPT UNCHANGED AND THAT OF GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE ALSO KEPT UNCHANGED 4.4%.

FOLLOWING THE SHARP INCREASE IN CONSUMER SPENDING IN THE QUARTER, THE FORECAST PREDICATES A LESS RAPID INCREASE IN THE PART OF THE YEAR. THE CONSOLIDATION IN THE PROPERTY AND STOCK MARKETS MARKET, COULD HAVE SOME DAMPENING EFFECT ON SENTIMENT IN THE CONSUMER IN REGARD

MAJOR PURCHASES

THAN

NECESSITIES. NEVERTHELESS, CONTINUED FULL EMPLOYMENT AND RISING REAL INCOMES SHOULD STILL BE PROVIDING FIRM SUPPORT TO CONSUMPTION GROWTH.

TO

RATHER

DAILY

/ON INVESTMENT