XN000022-1994-08-26 — Page 5

FRIDAY, AUGUST 26, 1994

THE CENSUS AND STATISTICS DEPARTMENT HAS RECENTLY UNDERTAKEN

REVISION OF THE GROSS DOMESTIC A NON-ROUTINE

PRODUCT ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST YEARS. THIS GIVES A BETTER COVERAGE A GREATER RECOGNITION OF THE OF INVISIBLE TRADE, CONTRIBUTION OF RE-EXPORTS TO THE GDP, AND AN IMPROVED MEANS TERMS. OF DERIVING THE GROWTH RATE OF VISIBLE TRADE IN REAL

IN REAL RESULTING FROM THIS REVISION, THE GDP GROWTH RATE

TO 6.0% IN IS RAISED BY 0.4 OF A PERCENTAGE POINT TERMS

OF 1992, 0.3 OF A PERCENTAGE POINT TO 5.9% IN 1993, AND 0.2 A PERCENTAGE POINT TO 5.7% IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 1994. ALSO INCORPORATING THE NON-ROUTINE REVISION, THE GDP GROWTH RATE IN REAL TERMS IN THE SECOND QUARTER WAS PROBABLY IN THE REGION OF 5.5

6%.

THE

AND

BEEN REVIEWED AND FOR 1994 HAVE ECONOMIC FORECASTS

OF THESE UPDATED ON THE BASIS

ECONOMIC

TECHNICAL DEVELOPMENTS. OVERALL, THE GDP GROWTH RATE IN REAL TERMS IN 1994 IS NOW FORECAST AT 5.7%. AGAINST THE EARLIER FORECAST OF 5.5%, THE DIFFERENCE IS ATTRIBUTABLE MAINLY TO THE EFFECT MATCHING OF THE NON-ROUTINE REVISION OF THE GDP ESTIMATES.

THE

THE LATEST FORECAST AGAINST THE ESTIMATED GDP GROWTH IN

THE ECONOMY IS FIRST HALF OF THE YEAR, IN OVERALL TERMS EXPECTED TO GROW AT A STEADY PACE THROUGHOUT 1994.

INDEX

8%

THE FORECAST RATES OF INCREASE IN THE CONSUMER PRICE (A) AND THE GDP DEFLATOR ARE KEPT UNCHANGED, AT 8.5% AND RESPECTIVELY.

THE EXTERNAL SECTOR

THE

THE YEAR-ON-YEAR

OF

EXPORTS SECOND

MODERATION IN EXPORT GROWTH OBSERVED IN THE EARLY PART

MONTHS, WITH THIS YEAR WAS FOLLOWED BY A PICK-UP IN THE MORE RECENT

REAL GROWTH RATE IN

TERMS OF TOTAL ACCELERATING FROM 8% IN THE FIRST QUARTER TO ABOUT 12% IN THE QUARTER. FOR THE FIRST HALF OF 1994 AS A WHOLE, TOTAL EXPORTS GREW BY ABOUT 10% IN REAL TERMS.

CONTINUED

RE-EXPORTS

IMPETUS TO PROVIDE THE KEY

TO OVERALL OF EXPORT GROWTH, RISING BY ABOUT 14% IN REAL TERMS IN THE FIRST HALF 1994 OVER A YEAR EARLIER. WHILE THE STRONG GROWTH IN RE-EXPORTS TO THE RE-EXPORTS TO UNITED KINGDOM AND JAPAN WAS SUSTAINED, THE GROWTH IN

RAPID THAN IN THE CHINA, THE UNITED STATES AND GERMANY WAS LESS PRECEDING QUARTERS.

IN

HAVING DETERIORATED IN THE SECOND

QUARTER.

THE TREND OF DECLINE IN DOMESTIC EXPORTS,

IMPROVED SOMEWHAT THE FIRST QUARTER, DOMESTIC EXPORTS TO JAPAN, SINGAPORE AND THE UNITED STATES RETURNED TO POSITIVE GROWTH IN THE SECOND QUARTER, WHILE THE DECLINES IN EXPORTS TO CHINA AND THE UNITED KINGDOM WERE SMALLER. THE FIRST HALF OF 1994 AS A WHOLE, OVERALL DOMESTIC EXPORTS STILL FELL BY ABOUT 5% IN REAL TERMS OVER A YEAR EARLIER.

DOMESTIC HOWEVER, FOR

RE- STEMMING FROM THE DIVERGENT TRENDS IN DOMESTIC EXPORTS AND

EXPORTS ROSE EXPORTS, THE SHARE OF RE-EXPORTS IN THE VALUE OF TOTAL FURTHER, TO 81% IN THE FIRST HALF OF 1994, FROM 78% IN THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR.

/IMPORTS ROSE