XN000022-1994-08-26 — Page 12

RATE OF INCREASE IN :

GDP DEFLATOR

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (A)

10

FRIDAY, AUGUST 26, 1994

8 8.5

NOTE :

AS THE LATEST UPDATED FORECAST OF GDP AND ITS COMPONENTS FOR 1994 HAS INCORPORATED THE RESULTS OF THE NON-ROUTINE REVISION OF THE GDP ESTIMATES, DIRECT COMPARISON WITH THE EARLIER FORECAST WHICH NOT CONTAIN SUCH A REVISION IS NOT ENTIRELY MEANINGFUL. AS AN OVERALL INDICATION, BETWEEN THE LATEST FORECAST OF A 6.7% GROWTH AND THE EARLIER FORECAST OF A 5.5% GROWTH FOR THE GDP IN 1994, THE DIFFERENCE 19 ATTRIBUTABLE MAINLY TO THE EFFECT OF THE NON-ROUTINE REVISION.

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: 1994 NON-ROUTINE REVISION

THE CENSUS AND STATISTICS DEPARTMENT HAS REVISED THE PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED GDP ESTIMATES. RESULTS OF THE REVISION ARE RELEASED TODAY (FRIDAY).

THE DEPARTMENT HAS RECENTLY UNDERTAKEN A DETAILED STUDY WHEREBY SOME IMPROVED METHODS OF ESTIMATION HAVE BEEN DEVISED AND CERTAIN NEW DATA SOURCES INCORPORATED INTO THE DATA COMPILATION SYSTEM.

IT IS INTERNATIONAL PRACTICE THAT GOVERNMENT STATISTICAL AUTHORITIES UNDERTAKE SUCH NON-ROUTINE REVISIONS ONCE EVERY FEW YEARS TO IMPROVE THE COMPILATION FRAMEWORK OF THE GDP LEADING TO THE PRODUCTION OF DATA OF ENHANCED QUALITY.

THE 1994 ROUND OF NON-ROUTINE REVISION OF THE GDP SERIES IS THE FIFTH OF ITS KIND. THE DEPARTMENT HAS PREVIOUSLY CONDUCTED FOUR ROUNDS OF REVISION AND RESULTS WERE RELEASED IN 1980, 1984, 1987 AND 1991.

BOTH THE EXPENDITURE-BASED GDP AND THE PRODUCTION-BASED GDP ARE REVISED IN THE EXERCISE.

COMPARED WITH THE ORIGINAL ESTIMATES, THE REVISED EXPENDITURE- BASED GDP ESTIMATES DIFFER BY LESS THAN HALF OF A PERCENTAGE POINT IN TERMS OF GROWTH RATES IN REAL TERMS OF THE GDP FOR MOST OF THE YEARS IN THE PERIOD.

FOR INSTANCE, IN THE REVISED SERIES, THE YEAR-ON-YEAR GROWTH RATES IN REAL TERMS OF THE GDP ARE 5.7 PER CENT FOR THE FIRST QUARTER OF 1994, 5.9 PER CENT FOR 1993 AND 6.0 PER CENT FOR 1992 WHILE THE PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED FIGURES WERE 5.5 PER CENT FOR THE FIRST QUARTER OF 1994, 5.6 PER CENT FOR 1993 AND 5.6 PER CENT FOR 1992.

/REGARDING THE