XN000022-1994-07-19 — Page 6

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TUESDAY, JULY 19, 1994

QUALIFICATIONS 1996, BUT

SUPPLY OF MANPOWER WITH FIRST DEGREE OR ABOVE WILL FIRST FALL SHORT OF REQUIREMENTS BY 5,900 PERSONS IN WILL EXCEED REQUIREMENTS BY 29,200 PERSONS IN 2001.

MANPOWER

"HOWEVER, THE PROJECTED POSITIVE BALANCE OF GRADUATE SUPPLY

2001, WHICH AMOUNTS TO 10 PER CENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS, SHOULD BE TAKEN AS THE NECESSARY SAFETY MARGIN AGAINST THE UNDERLYING UNCERTAINTIES OF THE SUPPLY PROJECTIONS, THE SPOKESMAN SAID.

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"IN PARTICULAR, AS MUCH AS HALF OF THE NEW SUPPLY OF GRADUATE MANPOWER WILL RELY ON NON-LOCAL SOURCES OF IMMIGRANTS/RETURNED EMIGRANTS AND OVERSEAS GRADUATES, WHICH CAN FLUCTUATE CONSIDERABLY THE YEARS AHEAD, HE ADDED.

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IN

"MOREOVER, EVEN IF THE POSITIVE BALANCE IS REALISED, IT COULD BE ONLY A TEMPORARY ONE. DEMAND FOR GRADUATE MANPOWER MAY SOON EXCEED SUPPLY AGAIN BEYOND 2001 AS THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN CHINA, AND HENCE HONG KONG, CONTINUES TO EXPAND," THE SPOKESMAN SAID.

THE PROJECTION OF THE MANPOWER SUPPLY AND REQUIREMENTS STUDY IS AIMED AT ASSESSING WHETHER, UNDER THE EXISTING AND PLANNED EDUCATION PROVISIONS,

LEVEL THE MIX OF MANPOWER SUPPLY IN TERMS OF EDUCATIONAL WILL BE BROADLY IN LINE WITH THE FUTURE NEEDS OF THE ECONOMY.

IT DOES NOT ADDRESS THE QUESTION OF WHETHER OR NOT THERE IS LABOUR SHORTAGE OR WHETHER IMPORTATION OF LABOUR IS JUSTIFIED.

PRIMARILY IS

IT

A

CONCERNED WITH DETERMINING WHAT KIND OF EDUCATION THE POPULATION SHOULD POSSESS TO MEET THE NEEDS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT.

IN THE LATEST STUDY, THE GOVERNMENT HAS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT RECENT TRENDS IN SUCH FACTORS AS MIGRATION OF PEOPLE IN AND OUT HONG KONG,

EMPLOYMENT PATTERN OF INDUSTRIAL AND OCCUPATIONAL LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION, WHICH ARE AFFECTING BOTH MANPOWER SUPPLY AND MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS AT AN EDUCATIONAL LEVEL.

THE

OF

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