XN000022-1993-11-26 — Page 9

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 26, 1993

TAKING

FORECAST ACCORDINGLY

RE-EXPORTS AND DOMESTIC EXPORTS TOGETHER, THE GROWTH RATE IN REAL TERMS OF TOTAL EXPORTS IN 1993 IS LOWERED, FROM 15.6% TO 13.2%.

+

THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE IN REAL TERMS OF RETAINED IMPORTS IN 1993 IS REDUCED FROM 9% TO 5%, HAVING REGARD TO THE ACTUAL OUTURN IN THE FIRST THREE QUARTERS AS WELL AS THE LIKELY PERFORMANCE AGAINST A RELATIVELY HIGH BASE IN THE FOURTH QUARTER OF LAST YEAR.

RETAINED IMPORTS OF MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO BE SUBDUED, WHILE RETAINED IMPORTS OF CONSUMER GOODS CAN BE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER IN LINE WITH THE GROWTH IN CONSUMER

SPENDING.

IMPORTS

TAKING RE-EXPORTS AND RETAINED IMPORTS TOGETHER, TOTAL ARE FORECAST TO GROW BY 13.6% IN REAL TERMS IN 1993, AS COMPARED ΤΟ THE EARLIER FORECAST OF 16%.

THE FORECAST GROWTH RATES IN REAL TERMS OF EXPORTS AND IMPORT'S OF SERVICES IN 1993 ARE BOTH KEPT UNCHANGED, AT 10% AND 8.5%.

IN THE DOMESTIC SECTOR, HAVING REGARD TO THE CONTINUED STEADY INCREASE IN CONSUMER SPENDING IN RECENT MONTHS, THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE IN REAL TERMS OF PRIVATE CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE IN 1993 IS MAINTAINED AT 7.5%.

THAT OF UNCHANGED, AT 3%.

GOVERNMENT

CONSUMPTION

EXPENDITURE IS ALSO LEFT

ON INVESTMENT, AS WORK ON A NUMBER OF MAJOR PUBLIC SECTOR INFRASTRUCTURAL PROJECTS CONTINUED TO ACCELERATE, THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE IN REAL TERMS OF PUBLIC SECTOR EXPENDITURE ON BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION IS REVISED SUBSTANTIALLY UPWARDS, FROM 25% TO 40%.

ON THE OTHER HAND, GIVEN THE SLACK PRIVATE SECTOR BUILDING ACTIVITY, PRIVATE SECTOR EXPENDITURE ON BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION IS EXPECTED TO FALL BY 4% IN REAL TERMS, FURTHER DOWN FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST OF A 2% DECLINE.

TAKEN TOGETHER,

OVERALL EXPENDITURE

ON BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION IS ENVISAGED TO INCREASE BY 10.5% IN REAL TERMS IN

1993, FASTER THAN THE EARLIER FORECAST INCREASE OF 6.9%.

AS REGARDS MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT, THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE IN REAL TERMS OF PUBLIC SECTOR EXPENDITURE IS SUBSTANTIALLY RAISED, FROM 30% TO 60%.

BUT BECAUSE OF THE SMALL PROPORTION OF THIS EXPENDITURE IN THE TOTAL IT IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO OFFSET THE DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE IN REAL TERMS OF PRIVATE SECTOR EXPENDITURE, FROM 12% TO 8.5%.

OVERALL EXPENDITURE ON MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT IS THUS ENVISAGED TO RISE BY 9.5% IN REAL TERMS IN 1993, SLOWER THAN THF EARLIER FORECAST INCREASE OF 12.3%.

/COMBINING ALL