XN000022-1993-03-04 — Page 4

بيا

3

THURSDAY, MARCH 4, 1993

SECRETARY FOR THE TREASURY: GDP GROWTH RATE FORECASTS

(SIMULTANEOUS INTERPRETATION) WE PUT IN OF 5.5 PER CENT FOR 1993 ALONG WITH AN INFLATION FORECAST IN TERMS OF THE CPIA OF 9.5 PER CENT. I WOULD SAY BOTH THESE TWO FORECASTS HAVE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT THE BUDGETARY EFFECTS, INCLUDING THE INCREASED CAPITAL SPENDING WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION COMPONENT WITHIN THE GDP AND ALSO THE EFFECT OF THE TAX CONCESSIONS ON PEOPLES' EXPENDITURE AND THAT IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE CONSUMPTION SPENDING COMPONENT THE GDP.

OF

FS:

THANK YOU. QUESTIONS.

QUESTION:

THAT

SIR, YOU SAID YESTERDAY

FINANCIAL SECRETARY'S TEND TO BE RATHER CONSERVATIVE IN THEIR ESTIMATES. READING THE PAPERS AND TALKING WITH ECONOMISTS AND TAX PEOPLE, THEY ALL SAY YOU'VE BEEN VERY OPTIMISTIC WITH THE INFLATION FORECAST, по YOU THINK YOU'VE BEEN OPTIMISTIC?

FS:

I'M NOT SURE THAT THEY DO ALL SAY THAT. THERE SEEMS TO BE A TENDANCY TO TRY AND SEEK THE CLOUD UNDERLYING WHAT SEEMS TO BE A PRETTY GOOD PACKAGE AND IF YOU'RE SEARCHING AROUND FOR A CLOUD THEN THAT'S PERHAPS ONE TO TRY AND FIND. I THINK WE HAVE BEEN PRETTY GOOD IN OUR FORECASTS ON BOTH ECONOMIC GROWTH AND INFLATION + THEY'RE NOT EASY TO MAKE SO I'M NOT PRETENDING THAT PEOPLE AREN'T FALLIBLE IN THIS AREA, BUT OUR RECORD ON THE ECONOMIC FORECASTING IS PRETTY GOOD. AS I SAID, I THINK THE FACTOR THAT PEOPLE HAVE TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT IS THE CAPACITY IN THE CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY. BEAR IN MIND ALSO THAT WE HAVE A SPECIAL IMPORTATION OF LABOUR SCHEME FOR ACP CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS WHICH ALSO HELPS TO EASE THE IMPACT OF THOSE PARTICULAR PROJECTS. THAT'S ADDITIONAL TO THE GENERAL QUOTA. BUT WE'RE NOT PRETENDING THAT WE'RE HEADING TOWARDS AFTER ALL DRAMATICALLY REDUCED INFLATION, WE'RE NOT.

WE'RE BEING VERY HONEST ABOUT THE PROBLEM.

QUESTION:

I HAVE A QUESTION FOR MR AU-YEUNG.

NOW AT PRESENT, OR IN THE PAST YEAR, NOW CONCERNING TAX AVOIDANCE AND TAX EVASION. I WOULD LIKE TO KNOW THE LOSS INFLICTED UPON THE TREASURY AND ALSO CONCERNING THE TWO SITUATIONS MENTIONED IN THE BUDGET CONCERNING AVOIDANCE AND EVASION, ARE THERE ANY OTHER EXAMPLES OF TAX AVOIDANCE AND EVASION? AND IN THE BUDGET IT IS SAID THAT MORE RESOURCES WILL BE CHANNELLED TO COMBAT TAX AVOIDANCE AND EVASION. YOU GO INTO DETAIL MR AU-YEUNG?

CAN

/COMMISSIONER FOR