XN000022-1992-05-29 — Page 4

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FRIDAY, MAY 29, 1992

ECONOMIC SITUATION IN 1ST QUARTER OF 1992 AND UPDATED FORECASTS

OF GDP AND PRICES FOR 1992

1992.

THE ECONOMY CONTINUED TO GROW STEADILY IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF

WHILE THE STRONG PERFORMANCE OF RE-EXPORTS WAS STILL THE MAIN IMPETUS TO GROWTH, THE FURTHER SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN CONSUMPTION AND INVESTMENT EXPENDITURES ALSO CONTRIBUTED.

QUARTER.

CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION CONTINUED TO MODERATE IN THE FIRST

THE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) GREW BY 4.4% IN REAL TERMS IN THE FOURTH QUARTER OF 1991 OVER A YEAR EARLIER, FOLLOWING AN INCREASE OF 3.5% IN THE THIRD QUARTER.

THE GROWTH RATE IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 1992 WAS PROBABLY IN THE REGION OF 4.5%.

THESE DEVELOPMENTS ARE DESCRIBED IN THE FIRST QUARTER ECONOMIC REPORT 1992 RELEASED TODAY.

THE GOVERNMENT ECONOMIST SAID THE ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR 1992 RELEASED IN EARLY MARCH WERE REVIEWED, ON THE BASIS OF THIS REPORT AND OTHER LATEST AVAILABLE INFORMATION.

THE FORECAST GDP GROWTH RATE IN REAL TERMS REMAINS UNCHANGED AT 5% THE FORECAST INFLATION RATES IN TERMS OF BOTH THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (A) AND THE GDP DEFLATOR ARE ALSO KEPT UNCHANGED, AT 9.5%.

IN THE EXTERNAL SECTOR, THE PERFORMANCE OF DOMESTIC EXPORTS REMAINED SLACK. A DECLINE OF ABOUT 1% IN REAL TERMS WAS RECORDED IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 1992 COMPARED WITH A YEAR EARLIER.

THIS PERFORMANCE SHOULD, HOWEVER, BE VIEWED AGAINST THE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN RE-EXPORTS WHICH RESULTED FROM THE PROGRESSIVE RELOCATION OF MANUFACTURING PROCESSES ACROSS THE BORDER.

IN THE FIRST QUARTER, DOMESTIC EXPORTS TO CHINA CONTINUED ΤΟ SHOW A MARKED INCREASE.

WHILE DOMESTIC EXPORTS TO THE UNITED STATES AND JAPAN REVIVED SOMEWHAT, THOSE TO GERMANY AND THE UNITED KINGDOM FELL SHARPLY.

RE-EXPORTS WERE ON A STRONG RISING TREND IN THE FIRST QUARTER, WITH A GROWTH RATE OF ABOUT 31% IN REAL TERMS OVER THE SAME QUARTER LAST YEAR.

AS A RESULT OF THIS GROWTH, THE SHARE OF RE-EXPORTS IN THE VALUE OF TOTAL EXPORTS ROSE EVEN FURTHER, FROM 68% IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 1991 TO 74% IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 1992.

/RE-EXPORTS